Hyperliquid News

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is being framed by Grayscale Research as an undervalued altcoin that can be assessed in a manner similar to an equity, with Head of Research Zach Pandl applying an earnings-per-token model to the decentralized derivatives venue. In a note published Tuesday, Grayscale assumes the protocol will generate about $1 billion in earnings in 2027, roughly 20% more than in 2025, supported by recovering crypto trading volumes and stablecoin reserve income tied to the platform’s Aligned Quote Asset framework.

Pandl projects circulating supply of 270 million to 310 million HYPE by the end of 2027, which would translate into $3.25 to $3.75 of earnings per token. At recent trading levels, that implies a forward multiple of about 15x to 18x, a valuation Grayscale argues is low relative to listed fintech peers. The comparison also reflects a broader shift in how some market participants are trying to value crypto protocols: less as pure narrative assets and more through cash flow and token supply assumptions. The outlook is not without risk: weaker network revenue or faster token supply growth would reduce the earnings available on a per-token basis. For market participants tracking Hyperliquid, the central question is whether protocol cash flow can keep pace with a valuation that already reflects meaningful growth expectations. In that framework, execution rather than narrative will determine whether the discount remains in place.

The valuation case comes as HYPE remains well below its record high. The token has fallen more than 13% over the past month and was trading about 29% below its mid-June peak, underperforming larger crypto assets that have held on to recent gains. On-chain data and fund-flow information point to two near-term headwinds: large unstaking activity from early backers and redemptions from listed investment products. For a token that is increasingly being discussed in fundamental terms, those flows matter because they affect how much supply is available and how much market demand is left to absorb it in the near term.

Multicoin Capital and Paradigm removed roughly $291 million in staked HYPE last week. Wallet activity monitored afterward showed Multicoin receiving 1.29 million HYPE, worth about $71.1 million, before transferring 101,340 HYPE, worth about $5.6 million, to Coinbase. Spot HYPE funds also posted $8.6 million in outflows last week, marking a second straight week of withdrawals and leaving product assets 18% below their July 10 high. The combination is significant because staking exits can increase liquid supply, while fund outflows reduce a marginal buyer that had been helping absorb tokens. In a bearish sentiment environment, long-term earnings models face a more difficult test when near-term positioning is still being reduced. That overhang does not undermine the cash-flow argument, but it does raise the execution bar.

A separate demand signal is emerging from Japanese public markets. Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market issuer Iole said it has begun acquiring HYPE as a strategic digital asset. In a disclosure dated July 29, the company said it changed the intended use of funds raised through a July 16 warrant issuance from Bitcoin purchases to broader digital-asset purchases, then made an initial HYPE acquisition.

Iole described the move as part of a Neo Crypto Bank strategy built around agentic commerce, in which software agents execute payments and contracts autonomously and on-chain settlement becomes core financial infrastructure. The company said it bought 1,078 HYPE for 10.08 million yen at an average price of 9,352 yen, and plans additional purchases through August with a target of 100 million yen in total exposure. Iole also said it may stake the tokens and participate in governance, treating HYPE less as a short-term trade and more as operating infrastructure tied to an appchain thesis. Based on its own survey as of July 28, the company said no listed company had previously disclosed HYPE acquisition and holding.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine places HYPE at $54.98 in a downtrend, with RSI at 35.62 and MACD bearish. The engine assigns support near $54.01 a score of 76 out of 100, citing confluence from Keltner Lower and Fibo 0.618, while resistance at $57.61 scores 81 out of 100 on the basis of Fibo 0.500 and Ichimoku Senkou B. Derivatives positioning is not strongly bullish: with long/short data unavailable, funding is 0.0031% and open interest stands at $1.44 billion, indicating leverage is present but not extreme. The Fear and Greed reading of 29 adds caution. A move back above $57.61 would improve the technical structure, while a break below $54.01 would expose the $46.48 VWAP and EMA-200 zone and weaken the near-term stabilization case.

COINOTAG does not provide financial advisory services. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve high risk.