HYPE is trading near $58.7 at the time of writing, retreating from levels above $70 reached earlier in July. The decline has brought price into a zone where two technically significant levels converge: the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and the rising 100-day simple moving average, which sits near $56.65.

This overlap establishes a well-defined area that the market must defend. However, the surrounding data presents a mixed picture. While a major holder has moved a substantial position into staking, demand through spot exchange-traded funds has continued to deteriorate.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Should HYPE hold above the current support confluence, the first notable resistance lies around $62.50, corresponding to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. That level previously functioned as support and could now attract selling pressure from traders looking to exit near break-even.

Beyond $62.50, the 50-day simple moving average near $64.20 represents another obstacle before price could challenge higher resistance zones visible on the chart.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 41, indicating weak momentum without reaching deeply oversold territory. While the indicator leaves technical room for a rebound, price would still need to reclaim nearby resistance levels before the broader structure could meaningfully improve.

A decisive break below the 100-day average would shift market attention to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $53. That region marks the next major support within the wider advance that began from the May lows.

ETF Demand Has Faded

According to SoSoValue data, HYPE spot ETFs recorded approximately $14.7 million in combined net outflows across the latest 11 trading sessions.

This recent weakness represents a notable shift from the earlier flow picture. HYPE had previously drawn investor interest around Hyperliquid's fee-funded token buybacks and expanding derivatives activity — factors examined in Coindoo's analysis of whether HYPE could become a smart-money play in the next market cycle. Hyperliquid operates as a decentralized perpetuals exchange built on its own Layer 1 blockchain, and HYPE functions as the network's native staking and governance token. The latest redemptions do not invalidate that longer-term thesis, but they demonstrate that ETF demand is no longer providing comparable near-term support.

Breaking down the 11 sessions, only July 15 produced a positive result, with $2.13 million entering the funds. The largest redemptions included $5.73 million on July 10, $3.93 million on July 13, and $5.45 million on July 17. Five sessions recorded no net movement, while the most recent available day showed an additional $1.02 million leaving the products.

The overall pattern indicates that ETF investors are not currently supplying sustained demand. Although flat sessions are less concerning than persistent redemptions, a clearer improvement would require several consecutive inflow days rather than a single isolated positive reading.

A Whale Stakes $172 Million in HYPE

Large-holder activity is telling a different story. According to Lookonchain data, 19 wallets believed to belong to the same entity deposited and staked 2.93 million HYPE over a 24-hour period. The position was valued at approximately $172 million at the time of the transfer.

A whale staked 2.93M $HYPE ($172M)!

Over the past 24 hours, 19 wallets (likely belonging to the same whale) deposited 2.93M $HYPE ($172M) into Hyperliquid and staked it.

The 2.93M $HYPE was accumulated 9 months ago at an average price of $44 and is now up ~$44.5M.… pic.twitter.com/azQLeg1vmO

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) July 24, 2026

The tokens were reportedly accumulated nine months earlier at an average price near $44. Based on the current valuation, the holder was sitting on an unrealized gain of roughly $44.5 million.

The decision to stake rather than sell may indicate an intent to maintain exposure despite the sizeable profit. Staked HYPE is delegated to validators who secure the Hyperliquid Layer 1 network, and those tokens are also less immediately available for sale on the open market. However, activity from a single entity cannot establish how the broader holder base is positioned.

Conflicting Signals Remain Unresolved

The ETF flow data points to weakening external demand, while the whale transaction suggests that at least one major holder remains confident enough to lock up a substantial position. Neither signal resolves the technical question on its own.

The market must still demonstrate whether the current support confluence can attract sufficient demand to halt the decline. A move above $62.50 would provide the first evidence that recovery is gaining traction. Conversely, a break below the 100-day average would weaken the market structure and bring the lower Fibonacci support near $53 into focus.