Key Insights

• HYPE price has staged a mild rebound in recent days, recovering from last week's low near $51 to approximately $55.40.
• Spot HYPE ETFs have experienced substantial outflows for four consecutive weeks.
• Hyperliquid's perpetual futures volume and network fees declined sharply in July.

HYPE, the native token of the Hyperliquid exchange, has rebounded over the past several days, rising from last week's low near $51 to around $55.40. Hyperliquid is one of the largest decentralized perpetual futures exchanges in crypto, operating on its own purpose-built Layer-1 blockchain. HYPE functions as both a staking and governance asset for that network. The recovery comes despite persistent outflows from spot HYPE ETFs and deteriorating monthly activity on the Hyperliquid platform.

At the time of reporting, HYPE traded near $55.50 with a circulating market capitalization of approximately $12.3 billion. The token remains roughly 28% below its June all-time high near $76.70.

While the recent advance could extend if HYPE maintains support above its long-term moving average, a bearish technical chart pattern leaves the rebound vulnerable to further downside.

HYPE ETF Outflows Persist

The broader cryptocurrency market has benefited from renewed risk-on sentiment, lifting most risk assets. U.S. equities have climbed to record highs, while Bitcoin and major altcoins have recovered ground. Bitcoin rose to $64,000, bringing the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies to approximately $2.2 trillion.

Despite this broader rally, spot HYPE ETFs have continued to shed assets. The funds recorded outflows of more than $964,000 on Monday, following losses exceeding $1.8 million on the preceding Friday. In total, these ETFs have posted net outflows for four consecutive weeks.

Grayscale's HYPG ETF remains the largest HYPE exchange-traded fund, with over $108 million in assets under management. It is followed by Bitwise's BHYP, with $92 million, and 21Shares' THYP, holding $52 million.

By comparison, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $170 million in inflows on Monday, while spot XRP funds added over $1.1 million on the same day. The divergence underscores how demand for a single exchange token's regulated wrappers can move independently from sector-wide ETF trends, particularly for tokens tied to platform-specific usage rather than broad store-of-value narratives.

The reason for the sustained HYPE ETF outflows remains unclear. One possible explanation is profit-taking by investors after the token surged approximately 280% between its lowest and highest levels this year.

Key Hyperliquid Metrics Weaken

On-chain data indicates that several core Hyperliquid metrics have deteriorated in recent weeks. According to DeFi Llama data, the network processed over $208 billion in perpetual futures volume in July, a sharp decline from June's $250 billion.

This contraction occurred amid the ongoing crypto winter and followed a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. That agreement pushed crude oil prices lower, a notable development given that Hyperliquid had emerged as a significant venue for oil market trading during the U.S.–Iran conflict.

The decline in trading volume also impacted network fees. Hyperliquid generated approximately $55.1 million in fees during July, down substantially from $80 million in June. At its peak, the platform was generating over $144 million in monthly fees. For a derivatives exchange, fee revenue is directly tied to trading activity, meaning the volume contraction feeds through to the fundamentals that many on-chain analysts associate with exchange token valuation.

Similar weakness has appeared across its layer-1 network. Total value locked on the layer-1 has fallen from a record $2.65 billion in September of last year to approximately $1.24 billion, the lowest level since January.

The stablecoin market capitalization on Hyperliquid's layer-1 has also declined, dropping to $6.2 billion from a peak of $7 billion. Layer-1 network fees plunged to $414,000 in July, compared with $1.2 million in June. The shrinking stablecoin supply on-chain points to capital leaving the platform, which can reduce available liquidity for traders and potentially compound lower trading volumes in a self-reinforcing cycle.

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, HYPE bottomed at $50.42 before beginning its current recovery. The token moved above the key resistance level at $52.50, which corresponds to its lowest swing point on June 11.

HYPE has retested the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level and has found meaningful dynamic support along the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

However, the token has formed a triple-top chart pattern, widely regarded as a bearish reversal signal, suggesting the ongoing recovery may prove temporary.

From a technical standpoint, the prevailing HYPE price forecast remains bearish. The initial support level to monitor is last week's low at $50.40. A break below that level could signal further downside, potentially toward the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $49. Given that both ETF flows and platform metrics are trending downward while the broader crypto market rallies, whether HYPE can sustain its recovery may hinge on a reversal in Hyperliquid's on-chain activity before technical support levels come under renewed pressure.