Key Takeaways

• ETF outflows continued into a third week.
• The next support sits near $52.
• Recovery requires a move above $64.
• Grayscale sees longer-term valuation appeal.

Fund demand weakened alongside HYPE’s price decline. In the same week, Grayscale published a constructive valuation case built on Hyperliquid’s projected 2027 earnings, leaving a gap between what the model implies and how investors are currently positioned.

The $57 Zone Has Turned Into Resistance

HYPE spent much of late June and mid-July trading around $57, giving that area more structural importance than the 0.382 Fibonacci level alone. The zone also includes the 100-day moving average near $57.30, which had previously acted as support.

That cluster now sits overhead. Traders who bought around $57 may use any rebound to reduce losses, while sellers may view the former support as a new entry area.

The descending trendline from the July highs adds further pressure, and the 50-day moving average at $64 remains above it. Together, those levels matter because they frame the next stretch of trading for participants watching whether the recent break is simply a pause or a more persistent shift in positioning.

ETF Flows Have Reversed Since Mid-July

Weekly ETF data from SoSoValue initially showed uninterrupted demand. Every completed reading from May 15 through July 10 was positive, including $57.19 million for the week ending May 29 and a peak of $111.36 million for the week ending June 26.

Another $10.36 million entered during the week ending July 10, after which the sequence turned negative. Net outflows reached $7.26 million by July 17 and $8.61 million during the week ending July 24.

Weakness has continued into the current week, with withdrawals of $2.89 million on July 27 and $1.24 million on July 28, bringing the partial weekly total to $4.14 million.

Those red readings are modest compared with the inflows recorded in May and June. Their significance lies in the timing: ETF demand faded in the same window that HYPE lost $57 and slipped below its 100-day average. For traders, that makes the flow data a useful read on whether demand is merely cooling or still under enough pressure to leave former support levels vulnerable.

Grayscale Values HYPE Through Future Earnings

In a July 28 report, Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl argued that HYPE should be valued using “earnings per token” rather than being treated purely as a speculative cryptocurrency.

Grayscale estimates that Hyperliquid could generate $1 billion in earnings during 2027. With circulating supply projected between 270 million and 310 million HYPE, that would equal $3.25 to $3.75 in earnings per token.

At a HYPE price near $54, those estimates imply a forward multiple of 15 to 18 times earnings. Pandl compared that with a range of 20 to 40 times for many listed fintech and crypto companies, arguing that HYPE still appears relatively inexpensive.

The calculation depends on Hyperliquid sustaining strong trading activity and fee revenue. Any shortfall would reduce earnings per token and raise the effective multiple.

Supply growth is the other variable. Contributor allocations unlock at roughly 550,000 HYPE each month, and faster circulation growth would spread future earnings across more tokens while adding selling pressure.

Potential Moves

Upside scenario

A daily close between $57 and $57.3 would reclaim the broken Fibonacci level and the 100-day average, returning HYPE to its former consolidation range. That would signal stabilization on its own.

The more important test is $64, where the 50-day average meets another Fibonacci level above the sequence of lower highs formed since early July. A move above that area would put price back over both moving averages and challenge the downtrend. ETF flows turning positive alongside either move would strengthen the case.

Downside scenario

The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $52 is the next support. A break below that level would expose the $45 area, where the 0.786 retracement meets the base formed during April and May.

Bigger picture

A valuation model and a price chart answer different questions. Grayscale’s case can remain valid even if HYPE trades lower for months, since forward multiples improve as price falls. The levels above show when positioning starts to align with the thesis.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Technical levels, ETF flows and valuation estimates do not guarantee future performance.

Methodology: The analysis uses the HYPE/USD daily chart dated July 29, 2026, weekly and daily ETF flow data through July 28, and the assumptions presented in Grayscale’s July 28 Hyperliquid valuation report.