Hormuz crisis puts Europe’s oil market under further strain after ceasefire relief

in Oil & Companies News 28/07/2026

Sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping lane between Iran and Oman, remains a highly dangerous undertaking.

In recent days, there have been multiple reports of attacks on oil tankers by both Iran and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The United States says the waterway remains open, but it has also threatened to target Iran’s bridges and power plants if the attacks continue.

Experts say the latest strikes have mainly targeted large international merchant vessels rather than ships trading locally, but they are nonetheless having a significant impact on Europe’s oil prices. That matters because Europe is heavily exposed to global crude and refined-fuel supply chains, so even disruptions far from its own shores can quickly feed through to retail fuel costs.

June: Italy and Cyprus the only EU countries where petrol prices kept rising

Last month, after Washington and Tehran agreed on a 14-point memorandum of understanding, which included a ceasefire, fuel prices finally stopped rising across Europe, albeit only temporarily.

Compared with May, diesel prices fell by 6.4% and petrol prices by 4.2% in June, according to recent Eurostat data.

The largest declines were recorded in the Czech Republic (-11.3%), Poland (-9.7%) and Bulgaria (-9.4%), while the smallest were in Hungary (-0.6%), Italy (-1.4%) and Slovenia (-1.6%).

For petrol prices, Cyprus (+0.7%) and Italy (+0.5%) were the only EU countries to post increases between May and June 2026. All other countries recorded declines, with the biggest drops in Sweden (-7.8%), Belgium (-7.0%) and Poland (-6.6%).

This new period of heightened tension and disruption, with no settlement in sight, is pushing fuel prices sharply higher again. Globally, crude oil prices passed $100 a barrel last week, the highest level since the beginning of June, underscoring how quickly shipping risk in a narrow chokepoint can unsettle broader energy markets.

Year-on-year: Eastern Europe sees the sharpest disruption, while Spain and Poland hold up thanks to tax cuts

On a year-on-year basis, from June 2025 to June 2026, the biggest price swings were seen in Bulgaria, Lithuania and Romania, all above 23%.

Some non-EU countries recorded even larger increases: nearly 32% in Turkey and almost 30% in Georgia.

These differences show how local policy and market structure can cushion or amplify the impact of imported oil costs. Countries with a bigger reliance on pass-through from wholesale prices have felt the strain more sharply, while others have used tax measures or domestic supply systems to soften the increase.

How Spain, Hungary and Poland keep fuel prices lower

Excluding Malta, the smallest fuel price increases in the EU were in Hungary (2.3%), Poland (5.8%) and Spain (7.9%).

Hungary has capped fuel prices, while Spain and Poland have contained the increase through VAT cuts on petrol and diesel.

That approach has drawn criticism in Brussels, where the EU recommended cutting excise duties instead.

Spain also benefits from significant downstream resilience. Although it relies heavily on crude oil imports, the country has a large network of oil refineries, making it less dependent on finished fuels and supply costs.

“Spain enjoys a unique oil infrastructure system with wide geographic and interconnecting coverage, including 11 oil port terminals, an extensive network of pipelines and storage capacity connected to refineries”, the International Energy Agency says.

Source: Euronews