US LNG Exports Surge 23%, Yet Henry Hub Remains Below $3
Key Takeaways
- •US LNG exports are up 23% year to date, while feed gas demand has climbed above 19 Bcf/d.
- •Henry Hub futures remain below $3/MMBtu because overall U.S. supply has stayed strong.
- •Domestic gas production is near record levels and storage remains above the five-year average.
- •Tropical Storm Edouard reached the Texas-Louisiana coast without affecting Gulf Coast LNG feedgas nominations.
- •European buyers are bidding more competitively for U.S. LNG cargoes despite softer cooling-demand forecasts.
Despite a sharp increase in US LNG output this year, benchmark Henry Hub prices have barely moved.
At a Glance:
- LNG feed gas tops 19 Bcf/d
- Production hovers near record levels
- Storage stays above the five-year average
US LNG exports have climbed 23% this year, but Henry Hub futures remain below $3/MMBtu even as feed gas demand has risen above 19 Bcf/d and domestic production remains near record levels.
The disconnect reflects a market that has absorbed stronger export demand without a sustained tightening in overall supply. Output has remained high, and storage levels continue to sit above the five-year average, limiting upward pressure on benchmark prices.
The latest LNG gains come amid a broader backdrop of strong U.S. gas supply. Production has stayed near record territory, while inventories have not fallen to levels that would normally support a stronger rally in Henry Hub. That leaves the export growth notable for throughput volumes, but not yet enough on its own to change the wider balance between supply, storage and domestic pricing.
Elsewhere in the market on September 1, 2026, physical natural gas prices eased back across the Gulf Coast and Southeast for Wednesday delivery after Monday’s sharp spike, giving back about two-thirds of the move above $7 as Tropical Storm Edouard came ashore near the Texas-Louisiana border.
US manufacturing also continued to expand in August, with factory output remaining solid and Texas activity accelerating. The data offered support for industrial natural gas demand heading into fall.
At Gulf Coast LNG terminals, feedgas nominations on Tuesday remained near recent levels as Edouard made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border. Forecasters said the storm’s heaviest rains would fall west of the export complex and assessed its threat to production at zero.
Natural gas futures pared early losses Tuesday as the season’s first Gulf Coast tropical storm moved toward the Texas-Louisiana LNG corridor without disrupting feedgas nominations.
In international LNG markets, cooling-demand forecasts eased across both Europe and Asia this week. Even so, European natural gas buyers were raising competitive bids for US LNG cargoes as thin storage and Middle East supply risk outweighed the softer temperature outlook.
Front-month natural gas futures also remained capped by technical resistance near $3.00/MMBtu as the calendar turned to September and meteorological autumn began.
