Haywood Securities has lowered its near-term gold and silver price forecasts after a weaker second quarter, but says the pullback has created an attractive entry point into precious-metals equities ahead of earnings season.

The Vancouver-based brokerage reduced its U.S. dollar 2026 gold price forecast to an average of $4,345 per oz. from $4,906 in March and cut its 2027 forecast to $4,000 from $5,000. It also lowered its 2026 silver forecast to $67.11 per oz. from $73.40 and trimmed longer-term platinum and palladium assumptions.

“We remain constructive on gold equities heading into earnings season and view the recent selloff as a period of consolidation within an ongoing bull market in precious metals, as key structural drivers including central bank accumulation, de-dollarization and elevated global debt levels remain in place,” Haywood’s mining analysis team said.

Gold declined 14% in the second quarter as higher bond yields, a stronger U.S. dollar and profit-taking weighed on prices after a sharp rally through late 2025 and early 2026. Gold equities lagged bullion, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) falling 18% during the quarter.

Even after the revision to its commodity deck, Haywood said senior producers trade at 7.83 times next-12-month cash flow, below the five-year average of 8.86 times. The brokerage said strong cash generation continues to support mergers and acquisitions as producers seek to replace depleted reserves, a backdrop that also keeps project quality and permitting progress in focus for investors comparing names across the sector.

Top producers

Haywood maintained a bullish stance on several miners and named Equinox Gold (TSX, NYSE-A: EQX) as its top producer pick. The brokerage said the pending merger with Orla Mining (TSX: OLA; NYSE: ORLA) would create a North America-focused producer with annual output of about 1.1 million oz. and a project pipeline that could lift production toward 2 million oz. by 2031.

Among developers, Haywood’s top picks are First Mining Gold (TSX: FF), Thesis Gold & Silver (TSXV: TAU) and Troilus Mining (TSX: TLG). It raised First Mining’s target price to $1.75 from $1.25 after the Springpole project received federal environmental approval, calling the decision a significant de-risking milestone.

“Recent M&A activity has shortened the list of quality gold development projects in Canada, further enhancing Springpole’s strategic appeal,” Haywood said. “First Mining offers a unique value proposition through its multi-track approach to value creation, combining a nearly fully permitted flagship asset in Springpole with a strong secondary asset in Duparquet which would be a company maker for most junior mining companies in its own right.”

Thesis’ appeal was bolstered by a December 2025 prefeasibility study “that outlined a low-cost, long-life gold silver project for its Lawyers Ranch project in B.C.’s exciting Toodoggone district,” Haywood said. “The study has delivered Lawyers Ranch as one of the few top-tier development projects in Canada and globally.”

Troilus, which is expected to produce 303,000 oz. gold-equivalent annually, is advancing through engineering, financing and permitting toward a construction decision, with final permits expected in the first quarter of 2027. Haywood estimates an after-tax net present value at a 5% discount of about $5.3 billion and an internal rate of return of roughly 29%.

“The project benefits from substantial existing site, power and transportation infrastructure at the past-producing operation, as well as a secured 70 MW power allocation, reducing the scope of new-build requirements,” Haywood said. “These inputs are expected to be incorporated into the updated feasibility Study targeted for this year’s fourth quarter through a more defined capital estimate and optimized mine plan.”

Haywood’s revised gold price outlook led to lower target prices for several producers, including Alamos Gold (TSX, NYSE: AGI), Equinox and Amex Gold Mining (TSXV: AMX; US-OTC: AMXEF). First Mining was the exception, with its higher target price driven by permitting progress rather than commodity prices.

Earnings outlook

Looking ahead to second-quarter earnings, Haywood expects strong results across much of its coverage despite lower realized gold prices than in the first quarter. The upcoming reports will give the market a fresh look at how producers managed margins, cash flow and operating costs during the quarter’s price volatility.

The brokerage forecasts cash flow per share of 63¢ for Alamos, 38¢ for Equinox and 4¢ for Americas Gold and Silver (TSX: USA), while estimating earnings per share of 82¢ for Artemis Gold (TSXV: ARTG).

Haywood also projects adjusted cash flow per share of US4¢ for Contango Silver & Gold (NYSE-A: CTGO), 4¢ for Luca Mining (TSXV: LUCA) and earnings per share of 7¢ for B2Gold (TSX, NYSE-A: BTO), with the first wave of precious-metals producers expected to report in the coming weeks.