Bitcoin (BTC) will not reclaim its record high on its own, according to Charles, the creator of the widely followed Hash Ribbons indicator. Edwards has named four developments he believes could act as upside catalysts for the leading cryptocurrency: real progress on quantum computing, a shift in Federal Reserve policy, the United States government adding Bitcoin to its holdings, or a stimulus event.

Edwards, the founder of digital asset investment firm Capriole Investments, developed Hash Ribbons, an on-chain metric that tracks Bitcoin miner activity and is used to identify miner capitulation and recovery phases across Bitcoin market cycles. Miner activity is shaped in part by Bitcoin's fixed issuance schedule: the network cuts its block reward roughly every four years in a halving event, most recently in April 2024, when the subsidy fell to 3.125 BTC per block.

The Four Catalysts in Context

Federal Reserve policy. The US central bank's interest rate decisions are closely monitored by crypto market participants because they influence dollar liquidity conditions, which have historically shaped demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The rate path is set by the Federal Open Market Committee, whose meeting outcomes and policy guidance are among the most closely watched scheduled events on the financial calendar.

US government holdings. The federal government's bitcoin holdings have been accumulated largely through law-enforcement seizures and forfeitures. In March 2025, a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was established by executive order signed by President Donald Trump to retain forfeited bitcoin rather than sell it, and proposals for the government to acquire additional bitcoin have been debated by US lawmakers.

Quantum computing. Advances in the field have prompted sustained discussion within the Bitcoin development and cryptography communities about long-term security. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) finalized its first post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024 as part of a broader effort to prepare cryptographic systems for future quantum capabilities. Bitcoin contributors have continued to weigh post-quantum signature schemes and migration considerations in public technical forums, with no protocol change adopted to date.

Stimulus events. These have precedent in Bitcoin's history: the US fiscal stimulus checks distributed during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 coincided with a marked increase in retail participation in cryptocurrency markets.

Edwards' remarks add to ongoing debate among analysts over what conditions would need to fall into place for Bitcoin to revisit its all-time high.

This article was first published on COINOTAG.