Halloween candy appearing on grocery store shelves in early August is not a supply chain anomaly — it is a deliberate retail strategy driven by tariff uncertainty and front-loaded import cycles, according to Amrita Bhasin, CEO of inventory liquidation company Sotira.

Speaking on FreightWaves Today, Bhasin said May 2025 was the peak month for U.S. imports and that she expects volumes to decline for the remainder of the year. That outlook contrasts with projections from Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka, who has forecast a robust second half for imports. The Port of Los Angeles is the busiest container port in the United States, making its volume projections a closely watched barometer for the broader freight sector. Which forecast proves correct has implications for ocean freight rates, port throughput, and warehouse capacity heading into the peak holiday shipping window.

The early-season stocking trend — informally dubbed "summerween" by retailers — reflects a broader shift in inventory planning as brands rush to bring goods into the country while tariff conditions remain comparatively favorable. Bhasin said the dynamic now spans nearly every consumer goods category, with Christmas decorations also expected to reach shelves significantly earlier than in prior years.

"Everything is getting pushed out earlier across pretty much all consumable or consumer good categories," she said.

The candy and chocolate segment illustrates the compounding pressures facing brands. Bhasin noted that a small bag of candy at convenience stores reached upward of $20 in some ZIP codes last year, driven by surging cocoa prices. Cocoa futures hit record highs in 2024 after poor harvests in West Africa, which produces roughly two-thirds of global supply, squeezed manufacturers and pushed costs through to consumers. Manufacturers responded by overbuying, leaving excess inventory that now needs to be sold through. Simultaneously, GLP-1 drug adoption — medications such as Ozempic and Wegovy originally developed for diabetes and weight management — consumer concern over food dyes, with some manufacturers pledging to phase out certain dyes by the end of 2026, and declining appetite for high-sugar products are all suppressing demand in the category.

Returns present another growing challenge for retailers and brands alike. "I think last year we saw a big return season. Returns the last few seasons have been high. Retailers are coming up with new policies," Bhasin said, noting that some e-commerce platforms now track return thresholds and may ban repeat offenders regardless of the dollar value involved.

The cost of reverse logistics is substantial across the supply chain. Bhasin said warehouses pay $1 to $2 simply to scan a single returned unit back into inventory — a significant burden when an item's MSRP may be only $8. She added that data shows 45% to 50% of e-commerce returns go directly to landfill without ever returning to a warehouse shelf, a figure that aligns with broader industry estimates flagging returns as one of retail's most persistent sustainability problems. Sotira is working with retail partners to route excess and returned goods to nonprofits via backhaul on existing truck lanes, generating tax deductions for brands and producing impact reports that companies use in investor disclosures.

Overstock is concentrated in packaged food and beverage, Bhasin said, including cereals, protein and nutrition bars, and chocolate-heavy CPG items over the past 18 months. The firm is also seeing growing excess in ultra-luxury goods such as handbags and prestige perfumes, as consumers increasingly question whether elevated price points are justified by quality.

Categories performing relatively well include fiber-enriched beverages, high-protein products, and clean beauty items, where consumers have shown a willingness to pay a premium.

On the demand side, Bhasin pointed to GLP-1 drug adoption as a structural shift affecting not only food consumption but broader consumer behavior, including reduced impulse buying. She described the behavioral changes tied to these medications as "underappreciated" and suggested they could reshape how brands market and procure products well beyond the grocery aisle.

With overstock volumes already elevated and consumer spending pulling back in recent months, Bhasin argued that the inventory currently sitting in U.S. distribution centers may be sufficient to meet demand through the remainder of the year.