Crypto-focused asset manager Grayscale said Bitcoin's price may have reached a bottom earlier than the timing implied by the asset's traditional four-year cycle, which is tied to Bitcoin's programmed halving events that reduce new supply by half roughly every four years and have historically coincided with cyclical price lows. The current cycle framework would otherwise point to a low in September or October.

Zach Pandl, Grayscale's head of research, said Bitcoin (BTC) has "grown up" as an asset and is now being influenced more heavily by macroeconomic conditions. In a Wednesday Grayscale report, Pandl wrote: "If the Fed forgoes rate hikes and economic growth holds up well, Bitcoin's price may already have bottomed." Grayscale, which operates the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and has been seeking regulatory approval to convert it into a spot Bitcoin ETF, has positioned its research as a bridge between crypto-native analysis and traditional macro frameworks.

Other market observers have also pointed to on-chain and holder data as potential signals of a bottoming process. Earlier in July, crypto brokerage K33 said that more than 50% of the Bitcoin supply was being held at a loss, arguing that Bitcoin's price has historically bottomed weeks after more than half of supply moved underwater in previous cycles.

In a June interview, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten told Cointelegraph that record holdings among long-term investors were another sign of a possible imminent Bitcoin bottom. Those holdings had reached an all-time high of 14.7 million Bitcoin.

Fed policy and macro factors remain central

Pandl said macroeconomic forces, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, are now in the "driver's seat" for Bitcoin's price. He said Bitcoin could "bottom when these macro factors turn around." This marks a shift from earlier cycles, when Bitcoin's price was driven primarily by crypto-specific events such as halvings, exchange collapses, or regulatory crackdowns.

The Fed's next interest rate decision is scheduled for July 29. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants were pricing in a 66% probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged, down from 88% a week earlier.

Pandl argued that previous Bitcoin bear markets have coincided with slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates.

Regulatory uncertainty may still weigh on Bitcoin's price action. In a June 26 Grayscale report, Pandl said that if the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, Strategy and other treasury companies may continue to further "deleverage," which could cause Bitcoin to "fall moderately further."

Some analysts expect a later bottom. Lebit Mining Pool founder Jiang Zhuoer predicted that Bitcoin would bottom only between October and December 2026, or about six months after Strategy's Multiple to Net Asset Value (mNAV) reached its cycle low. His post was published on X: https://x.com/Jiangzhuoer2/status/2069859549818019872