'Follow the money': GOP ad spending pullbacks point to internal fears of midterm losses, MS NOW analysis argues
Key Takeaways
- •An MS NOW analysis by James Downie argues that campaign spending decisions, rather than public polls, reveal Republicans' internal expectations of losses in the upcoming midterms.
- •GOP groups have pulled out of Senate races in North Carolina and Georgia and shifted money to states where Democrats have not won Senate contests in decades, including Iowa, Texas, and Kansas.
- •The House Majority PAC and the Congressional Leadership Fund withdrew advertising from Nebraska's 2nd District and later from two additional districts held by Republican incumbents, New Jersey's 7th and Iowa's 1st.
- •Republicans, who hold a three-seat House majority, have abandoned advertising in as many seats as their margin just two weeks before the election, while also curtailing efforts to unseat several Democratic incumbents in swing districts.
- •Downie argues that historical precedent shows such spending retreats typically foreshadow poor results for the GOP as a whole on Election Day.
Republicans are behaving in ways that suggest they expect significant losses in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a new analysis from MS NOW, which argues that campaign spending patterns — not public polls — reveal the party's internal outlook.
Writing for the outlet on Monday morning, MS NOW reporter and editor James Downie noted that although an abundance of strong polls indicates a massive blue wave is approaching in the midterms, many Democrats remain too scarred by President Donald Trump's wins in 2016 and 2024 to trust the numbers. They might ease their "stress," he suggested, by applying a simple rule: "Don't follow the polls. Follow the money."
"More specifically, follow where the money is being spent," Downie explained. "Most people who track the latest polls and other data do so to stay informed. But political operatives are using a much larger amount of data, including private polling, to allocate hundreds of millions of dollars in spending on ads and other expenditures."
Campaigns, he noted, often detect trends and possibilities in polling data that the public cannot see — the much-fabled "internal polling" — and those findings can shape decisions in revealing ways. Downie pointed to the 2016 example, when Trump closed his campaign with stops in swing states expected to go blue because internal data showed he was gaining considerable ground there.
"There's no such aggression coming from the GOP this year," Downie added. "First came the Senate cuts, with GOP groups pulling out of the races in North Carolina and Georgia. And rather than shift the money to target Democratic-held seats, Republicans have moved that money to states where Democrats haven't won a Senate race in 18 years (Iowa), 38 years (Texas) and 94 years (Kansas)."
He continued: "Then came the House cuts. Last week the House Majority PAC and the Congressional Leadership Fund pulled advertising in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, where Rep. Don Bacon is retiring. This week, they retreated from two more districts, this time with GOP incumbents: New Jersey's 7th District and Iowa's 1st District." Voters gave Republicans a three-seat House majority in the 2024 elections; with two weeks to go, the House GOP has already given up on that many seats. At the same time, Republican groups pulled back from efforts to oust a half-dozen Democratic representatives in swing districts, including Reps. Kristen McDonald Rivet, Greg Landsmann, Tom Suozzi and Henry Cuellar.
The significance of the changes, in Downie's framing, is not simply the amount of advertising removed from individual races but where Republican groups chose to redirect resources. Because campaigns use polling and other data to decide which contests receive financial support, withdrawals from competitive districts can offer a view of internal priorities even when they do not by themselves determine the result of an election.
Historically, this kind of spending retreat has signaled a bad Election Day across the entire GOP, not merely for the affected candidates.
Based on these movements, Downie argued that while the public may be anxious about trusting polls, "the Republicans who are paid to know this stuff are behaving as if they believe the polls."
"For many Democratic partisans, however, no data can calm the fears of midterm disappointment," Downie concluded. "But endlessly fretting about that possibility is no way for any of us to spend the Halloween season. So, the next time you're worried about the polls, just remember: Republicans are, too."
