As the Republican midterm convention ramped up in Dallas on Wednesday with the aim of rallying the party's base around President Donald Trump, new reporting revealed that GOP insiders privately worry that the "midterm results are already baked in the cake."

According to the Washington Examiner, convention organizers hope the event will "fire up voters" and "reset" the campaign. The outlet noted, however, that "Republicans appear to be trailing in several key races," and that Trump's sliding approval ratings may already weigh heavily on the party's midterm prospects. The stakes are structural: all 435 House seats and roughly one-third of Senate seats are on the ballot, and the outcome will determine which party controls Congress for the remainder of the president's term.

"What if the result of the midterm elections is already pretty much a done deal?" the Examiner asked. "If, 55 days before Election Day, the outcome is already baked in the cake and there's not much that can be done to change things? And what if that is especially true when Trump wants to make the election about his performance as president, as he apparently does?"

One "knowledgeable and experienced Republican" who spoke with the paper put it starkly: "Voters' negative views on the economy and the war in Iran are fully baked. Nothing will change that before election day. Those are certainties."

Turnout, the Examiner added, remains its own stubborn question. "And then there is the always vexing question of which voters will actually bother to show up," the paper wrote. "That's one of the things the Republican convention is designed to move the needle on. Maybe it will succeed. But fundamentally change the race? The reality is, some of the major factors are already set and are highly unlikely to change in the next 55 days." Midterm electorates are typically smaller and harder to forecast than presidential-year ones, which is why parties treat turnout operations as decisive.

The outlet also cited broader political science: "There is a lot of research suggesting that many voters make their decisions early in a campaign. To the degree that some of the issues voters have unchangeable opinions on — Trump, the economy, and the war — to the degree that those factors play a decisive role in the voting, then the result might indeed be baked in the cake." The historical record offers context for that concern: since World War II, the president's party has lost House seats in every midterm election except 1998 and 2002.

The Examiner argued that this dynamic is especially pronounced on matters involving Trump, who has placed himself at the center of the election. At a recent rally, the president said: "So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot. Just come and vote. It's so important."

According to the paper, "Trump's intention seemed clear; he was trying to spark higher, presidential-level turnout in a lower-turnout midterm election. But the effect of Trump's words was also clear; he was putting himself in the middle of the midterms. And given his job approval ratings, that is, to say the least, a risky strategy."

The numbers underscore the concern. Trump's approval currently stands at 39.7 percent, with 57 percent disapproval, per the Examiner. "Looking at the most recent dozen polls in the average, which include pollsters whose results have been both more and less favorable to Trump, the president has been underwater in every single one," the paper reported. "In the best poll for Trump, he was six points underwater; in the worst, he was 30 points underwater. In this term, Trump has been underwater since early March 2025, just weeks into his presidency."

With that in mind, the Examiner wrote, "No wonder the Republican veteran sees the Trump factor as absolutely unchangeable. The same is true, by the way, of Trump's job approval specifically on the issue of the economy and on the war — both topics on which Trump is underwater."

The paper closed with a caution for the GOP: "There are a lot of voters out there — about 107 million Americans voted in the 2022 midterm elections — and it could be that an overwhelming number of them have already made up their minds." Over the remaining 55 days, the markers to watch are the same ones the Examiner flags: the approval averages, the margins in key races, and, on Election Day itself, which voters actually show up.