Even as Republican candidates across the country distance themselves politically from President Donald Trump, a new report suggests that some in Trump's orbit and within the GOP are unwilling to publicly acknowledge how difficult the midterm landscape may be. The stakes are unusually high in November: control of the House is narrowly divided, and the party holding the White House has historically lost congressional seats in midterm elections, a pattern that adds to Republican concern even in districts engineered to favor them.

Politico's Andrew Howard and Aaron Pellish reported on Sunday that the National Republican Congressional Committee, or NRCC, the House GOP's campaign arm, is pointing to extensive data showing Democrats have historically performed poorly in a number of seats redrawn this year, including three in California and several in Texas and Florida. As one example, they wrote that the newly drawn Texas 35th District has never been carried by a Democrat in any race, even though Democrats are targeting it in November.

Howard and Pellish quoted NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella as saying, "The naysayers and bedwetters fail to recognize that Democrats promised the moon in California, and instead they're being forced to fight tooth and nail across deep-red territory in states like Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama."

The Politico report also described growing Republican anxiety about the midterm outlook, saying that recent gerrymandering has not delivered the level of advantage many Republicans expected. According to the article, "Republicans did win the midterm mapmaking war and will likely net at least six seats via gerrymandering — but that's less than half the number they'd initially hoped when they began the ambitious project over a year ago." The redraws follow the constitutionally mandated redistricting cycle that follows each decennial census, when states recast their congressional maps — often with the party controlling state legislatures drawing lines to its own advantage.

Politico said that result is tied in part to the broader political environment, including President Donald Trump's approval rating, which it described as hovering in the high-30s, and the continuing impact of the unpopular war in Iran on Americans' pocketbooks. The report added that seats intended to be safe in Texas, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina remain unexpectedly competitive, while Republicans are looking at smaller gains from redraws in southern states. It also noted that on Friday, the Missouri Supreme Court blocked a one-seat GOP gerrymander from taking effect this year unless the U.S. Supreme Court intervenes — an example of the courtroom battles that increasingly shape the House map alongside legislative ones.

In response to weaker enthusiasm on the Republican side of the electorate, Trump recently announced that he is launching a series of commercials that put him front and center in GOP election campaigns. Two ads have already aired. Trump has argued that Republicans are more likely to turn out if they see him as the candidate, but some Republican strategists disagree strongly with that assessment. The dispute cuts to a familiar tension in midterms, where base turnout and swing-voter persuasion often pull campaigns in opposite directions.

Right-wing commentator Charlie Sykes criticized the strategy on Saturday, saying, "Well, I mean, this is political malpractice on an epic scale, because normally if you're, you know, a swing-seat Republican, what you're trying to do is make this anything other than a referendum on Donald Trump. If you make it a referendum on Donald Trump, you are in you're in deep s——. And so what is the message coming from the White House? It's got to be all about me. And next week they're having that midterm convention, that's going to be a s——show for the ages."