Michael Oliver: Gold and Silver Are Entering Their Next Phase

David Russell recently spoke with Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, about what his analytical framework is signaling for precious metals and the broader financial markets.

Despite a sharp correction earlier this year, Oliver maintains that the underlying market structure for both gold and silver has held up with notable resilience. In his view, recent price action does not represent the end of the broader advance; rather, he argues it has established the groundwork for the next move higher — one he expects to unfold quite differently from the previous rally. Gold's advance in 2024 has already drawn strength from sustained central-bank purchasing, particularly from emerging-market institutions diversifying reserves away from dollar-denominated assets.

Oliver believes gold and silver are transitioning into a new phase that could prove significantly more explosive. He attributes this not primarily to short-term market headlines, but to deeper structural forces: mounting pressure across global debt markets and the ongoing erosion of fiat currency value. With global sovereign debt at record levels and several major currencies under pressure, the appeal of precious metals as a store of value has broadened beyond traditional precious-metals investors.

The discussion also extended beyond precious metals, covering the U.S. stock market, government bonds, the Japanese yen, and what Oliver perceives as growing vulnerabilities beneath markets that appear stable on the surface. The yen's volatility earlier this year, which triggered the unwinding of carry trades and sent shockwaves through global equities, underscored the kind of cross-asset fragility Oliver highlights.

Market Update

Gold and silver prices have continued their upward trajectory, buoyed by a softer U.S. dollar and market expectations tied to the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision. The Fed's pivot toward rate cuts — beginning with a 50-basis-point reduction — marked a shift in monetary policy that traditionally reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver. With upcoming U.S. inflation (CPI) data and rising oil prices, market volatility could intensify through the remainder of the week.

Following gold's recent breakout, the next critical level to monitor is $4,430. This region previously marked the March lows and now serves as a key resistance zone. A sustained breakthrough above $4,430 could pave the way toward $4,500, with a longer-term objective in the vicinity of $4,900. On the downside, support sits near the $4,100 level.

Silver is also nearing a significant resistance level at $64. A decisive break above this threshold would reinforce the metal's recent upward momentum and place the critical $70–$72 resistance zone firmly in view. Silver's role extends beyond its precious-metal classification; its industrial applications, particularly in solar photovoltaic manufacturing, have tightened supply dynamics and added a demand-side dimension to its price structure.

Overall, the near-term outlook for both gold and silver remains constructive. However, each metal will need to clear its respective resistance levels to sustain momentum and enable further upside.

Source: SilverSeek