Gold could climb to $6,000 per ounce as surging U.S. federal debt and sustained central-bank purchasing power the metal's ongoing bull market, according to John Ing, president of Toronto-based brokerage Maison Placements, who laid out the forecast in a paper released Thursday.

Ing's outlook is anchored in $39 trillion in U.S. federal debt — roughly $1 trillion of which consists of annual interest costs — combined with steady demand from the official sector. He favors gold producers positioned for near-term production growth, including Lundin Gold (TSX, Nasdaq Stockholm: LUG), whose Fruta del Norte mine is located approximately 400 km south of Quito in southeastern Ecuador.

"While gold's two-year rally has taken a pause that refreshes, we believe that this bull market has only just begun," wrote Ing, a 50-year veteran of investment banking and owner of Maison Placements Canada. "We continue to expect gold to reach $6,000/oz as part of its multi-year bull market."

The precious metal has risen approximately 68% since 2024, marking one of the strongest gold rallies in the modern era and materially altering the economics of previously marginal mining projects. A sustained advance toward $6,000 per ounce would expand miners' profit margins, increase free cash flow, and catalyze acquisitions as producers face challenges replacing depleted reserves, Ing noted. Gold's appeal in this environment stems in part from its finite physical supply, which contrasts with fiat currencies whose issuance can be expanded by central banks — a characteristic that has historically drawn investors during periods of rapid monetary growth.

Debt Pressure and Dollar Dilution

The U.S. dollar's share of global reserves declined to 54% in the first quarter of last year, down from 71% in 1999, according to Ing. Foreign investors hold nearly $10 trillion of the $32-trillion U.S. Treasury market, leaving Washington vulnerable if overseas appetite wanes as federal borrowing continues to grow.

Ing argues that the Federal Reserve cannot sustain Treasury demand by expanding the money supply without stoking inflation. U.S. broad money has surged nearly fourfold since May 2000, reaching $23 trillion and channeling more capital into both financial and hard assets, he wrote.

Central banks purchased 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter and an additional 41 tonnes in May — their largest monthly increase since November. China added nearly 15 tonnes for a 20th consecutive month, bringing its total holdings to 2,346 tonnes by the end of June. Poland acquired 82 tonnes during the first half of the year.

Beyond accumulating more bullion, some governments have also begun relocating physical gold from vaults in New York and London to reduce exposure to sanctions and political risk. The acceleration of gold repatriation and reserve diversification by emerging-market central banks gained particular momentum after the 2022 freezing of approximately $300 billion in Russian central bank reserves by Western nations, an episode widely cited by monetary policy analysts as a turning point in how non-aligned governments view sovereign asset custody. While this shift will not displace the dollar in the near term, it strengthens bullion's role as nations diversify reserves across a broader range of currencies and assets, in Ing's assessment.

Mining Stock Recommendations

Ing rates Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX, NYSE: AEM), B2Gold (TSX: BTO; NYSE-A: BTG), and Endeavour Mining (TSX, LSE: EDV) as strong buys. He assigns buy ratings to Barrick Mining (TSX: ABX; NYSE: B) and Lundin Gold.

Maison Placements does not disclose the value of client assets and states that clients retain final decision-making authority in its advisory accounts.

Ing projects Agnico Eagle to produce approximately 3.4 million ounces this year at all-in sustaining costs of $1,400 per ounce, while advancing its Hope Bay project in Nunavut and expanding operations around Kittilä in Finland.

Barrick provides exposure to Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, and the high-grade Fourmile discovery in Nevada. Ing forecasts roughly 3.1 million ounces of production this year at all-in sustaining costs of $1,600 per ounce.

Lundin Gold is expected to produce 475,000 to 525,000 ounces this year at all-in sustaining costs of approximately $1,100 per ounce.

B2Gold's Goose mine in Nunavut has poured its first gold, though a crusher fire delayed the ramp-up to full capacity. A long-anticipated permit for satellite deposits near its Fekola mine in Mali could contribute an additional 70,000 ounces annually.

Endeavour Mining produces roughly 1.2 million ounces per year from operations in Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Côte d'Ivoire. Its Assafou project in Côte d'Ivoire is projected to add approximately 330,000 ounces annually starting in 2028, providing one of the more robust growth pipelines among mid-tier producers.

Ing rates Kinross Gold (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC) a hold. He assigns sell ratings to Centerra Gold (TSX: CG; NYSE: CGAU), Iamgold (TSX: IMG; NYSE: IAG), and Newmont (NYSE, ASX: NEM). Eldorado Gold (TSX: ELD; NYSE: EGO) receives his lowest rating due to construction and ramp-up risks at its Skouries project in Greece and McIlvenna Bay project in Saskatchewan.

According to the report's disclosure, Ing or an associate holds securities in Barrick, B2Gold, and Endeavour.