Only a limited number of FX option expiries warrant attention heading into the 24 July 10:00 a.m. New York cut. Large option expiries can sometimes act as a gravitational force on spot prices as the cut approaches—particularly when strikes align with key technical levels—but today's profile offers limited such overlap.

The notable expiries are concentrated in EUR/USD at the 1.1350 and 1.1430 levels. However, these options are not expected to exert meaningful influence on intraday price action unless the market encounters significant unexpected developments.

The US dollar has reasserted control, with EUR/USD slipping back below the 1.1400 threshold. From a technical standpoint, the more relevant resistance zone sits at the figure level alongside the 100-hour moving average at 1.1407 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.1420. These levels define the upper boundary that traders will be monitoring closely, particularly should upcoming euro area PMI data deliver any surprises. PMI readings above 50 signal sector expansion while sub-50 prints indicate contraction, so any significant deviation from consensus could test those resistance levels.

That said, markets are already pricing in a high probability of European Central Bank action at its September meeting, limiting the likelihood that today's PMI releases will materially shift the policy conversation. Inflation data currently carries greater weight for ECB expectations, alongside developments in the Middle East that continue to influence broader market dynamics.

A particularly concerning signal for the euro area inflation outlook comes from energy markets. Dutch TTF natural gas futures—Europe's primary benchmark for wholesale gas pricing—have rallied more than 40% in July, approaching the peak levels last observed in March. This sharp repricing in gas markets has the potential to complicate the disinflationary trajectory that ECB policymakers have been relying on, given that energy costs feed directly into headline inflation measures.

Regarding the EUR/USD option expiries clustered around the 1.1350 lower bound, they do not align with any technically significant price levels. As a result, they are unlikely to serve as a meaningful magnet for spot price action during the session ahead.

Separately, a pair of larger AUD/USD option expiries sits above the 0.7000 level. These are unlikely to generate notable impact, given that the current spot price remains at a considerable distance from those strikes.

For guidance on interpreting FX option expiry data and its practical application in trading, refer to the explanatory resource here.