Gold could rise to $6,000 (C$8,450) per oz. as rising U.S. debt and sustained central-bank buying prolong the metal’s bull market, according to a paper released Thursday by John Ing, president of Toronto-based brokerage Maison Placements.

Ing’s forecast is based on $39 trillion in U.S. federal debt, roughly $1 trillion in annual interest costs, and continuing demand from the official sector. He favours gold producers with near-term growth prospects, including Lundin Gold (TSX, Nasdaq Stockholm: LUG), whose Fruta del Norte mine is about 400 km south of Quito in southeastern Ecuador.

“While gold’s two-year rally has taken a pause that refreshes, we believe that this bull market has only just begun,” wrote Ing, a 50-year investment banking veteran and owner of Maison Placements Canada. “We continue to expect gold to reach $6,000/oz as part of its multi-year bull market.”

Gold has gained about 68% since 2024, ranking among the strongest modern-era rallies for the metal and materially improving the economics of projects that were previously marginal. Ing said a sustained move toward $6,000 per oz. would expand miners’ margins, increase free cash flow and encourage acquisitions as producers face challenges replacing reserves. For producers, the gap between the gold price and all-in sustaining costs is a key measure of operating leverage, making cost control and mine-life extensions central to how much of a higher bullion price flows through to cash generation.

The recent pullback in gold has not altered Ing’s $6,000 target. Source: Mining.com Markets

Debt pressure

According to Ing, the U.S. dollar’s share of global reserves declined to 54% in the first quarter of last year from 71% in 1999. Foreign investors hold almost $10 trillion of the $32-trillion U.S. Treasury market, creating exposure for Washington if overseas demand weakens while federal borrowing continues to grow.

Ing argues that the Federal Reserve cannot support Treasury demand by expanding the money supply without adding to inflation pressures. U.S. broad money has increased nearly fourfold since May 2000 to $23 trillion, pushing more capital into financial assets and hard assets, he wrote.

Central banks purchased 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter and another 41 tonnes in May, marking their largest monthly addition since November. China added almost 15 tonnes for a 20th consecutive month, raising its holdings to 2,346 tonnes at the end of June. Poland bought 82 tonnes during the first half of the year. Official-sector purchases are closely watched because central banks tend to buy for reserve management rather than short-term trading, adding a different source of demand from jewellery, exchange-traded funds and private investors.

In addition to buying more bullion, some governments have begun relocating physical gold from vaults in New York and London to reduce exposure to sanctions and political risk. Ing said the trend will not replace the dollar in the near term, but it strengthens bullion’s role as countries diversify reserves across more currencies and assets.

Miner ratings

Ing rates Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX, NYSE: AEM), B2Gold (TSX: BTO; NYSE-A: BTG) and Endeavour Mining (TSX, LSE: EDV) as strong buys. He assigns buy ratings to Barrick Mining (TSX: ABX; NYSE: B) and Lundin Gold.

Maison Placements does not disclose the value of client assets and says clients make final decisions in its advisory accounts.

Ing expects Agnico to produce about 3.4 million oz. this year at all-in sustaining costs of $1,400 per oz., while advancing Hope Bay in Nunavut and expanding around Kittilä in Finland.

Barrick provides exposure to Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic and the high-grade Fourmile discovery in Nevada. Ing expects Barrick to produce about 3.1 million oz. this year at all-in sustaining costs of $1,600 per oz.

Lundin Gold is expected to produce 475,000 to 525,000 oz. this year at all-in sustaining costs of about $1,100 per oz.

B2Gold’s Goose mine in Nunavut has poured first gold, although a crusher fire delayed its ramp-up to full capacity. A long-awaited permit for satellite deposits near B2Gold’s Fekola mine in Mali could add 70,000 oz. a year.

Endeavour produces about 1.2 million oz. annually from mines in Senegal, Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire. Its Assafou project in Côte d’Ivoire is expected to add about 330,000 oz. per year from 2028, giving the company one of the stronger growth pipelines among mid-tier producers.

Ing rates Kinross Gold (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC) a hold. He rates Centerra Gold (TSX: CG; NYSE: CGAU), Iamgold (TSX: IMG; NYSE: IAG) and Newmont (NYSE, ASX: NEM) as sells. Eldorado Gold (TSX: ELD; NYSE: EGO) has his lowest rating because of construction and ramp-up risk at Skouries in Greece and McIlvenna Bay in Saskatchewan.

According to the report’s disclosure, Ing or an associate holds securities in Barrick, B2Gold and Endeavour.