Global soybean prices have experienced sharp declines in recent weeks, driven by falling Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures, yet outright prices in both Brazil and the United States remain elevated, according to market sources. The high price environment has made Chinese buyers more cautious, though Brazil continues to be their preferred origin. China is the world's largest soybean importer, purchasing over 60% of globally traded soybeans annually, making its buying patterns a key barometer for international prices.

Between July 14 and July 24, CBOT futures posted notable gains. The August (Q) soybean contract rose 55.25 cents, moving from 1,192.75 cents per bushel to 1,248 cents/bu, while the September (U) contract climbed 59 cents, from 1,181.25 cents/bu to 1,240.25 cents/bu.

US market sources attributed the increases to dry weather concerns across American growing regions, the war in the Middle East lending support to energy markets, recent Chinese purchases of US soybeans, and strength in soybean meal.

According to S&P Global Energy CERA, the US Department of Agriculture had confirmed the sale of 3.045 million metric tons of US soybeans by July 31, with sales accelerating during the week beginning July 14.

This trading activity generated optimism in the US market, underpinning futures, basis levels, and global prices. The SOYBEX FOB New Orleans and FOB Santos assessments both rose above the $500/mt threshold during the week ended July 24. SOYBEX serves as a widely referenced pricing benchmark for soybean exports from the US Gulf and Brazilian ports.

However, Chinese purchases of US soybeans reportedly slowed during the week ended July 31, with the USDA confirming only 264,000 metric tons for delivery to China.

A trader in the CIF New Orleans market noted that the "weather premium was also taken off soybean futures," as forecasts for the US Corn Belt began showing rain on July 26, arriving at a critical point in the US growing season. Late July through August is the pod-setting and seed-filling stage for US soybeans, when moisture stress has the greatest impact on final yields.

CBOT September (U) futures fell 29 cents during the July 27–31 period, while November (X) futures declined 26.25 cents.

"The big drop this week was related to weather, energy, and the market being overpriced," said Aaron Gerdts, principal crop analyst at CERA. "Weather forecasts look more favorable than last week, and I think the market realized yields will not be as bad as some had thought."

Despite the retreat, prices remain high according to US sources. SOYBEX FOB New Orleans for September shipment was assessed at $481.53/mt on July 31, and the outright price for CIF NOLA for August shipment stood at $476.75/mt.

In Brazil, FOB prices reached their highest levels in two and a half years during the week ended July 27, driven by a combination of firm export demand, expanding domestic crush capacity, uneven farmer selling, and the influence of CBOT futures. Brazil has been the world's largest soybean producer since surpassing the US in the 2022-23 season, giving its export prices outsized influence on global supply dynamics.

Although Chinese buyers have adopted a more cautious stance amid elevated values and deteriorating crush margins, Brazil is expected to remain competitive with the US for fourth-quarter shipments, according to market participants. Crush margins—the profitability spread between the cost of raw soybeans and the revenue from processed soybean meal and oil—have been compressed by high raw material costs, pressuring processors in China who handle the bulk of the country's soybean imports.

"Brazil's old crop availability remains high, as around one-third of the 2025-26 crop is still unsold, which equates to about 60 million metric tons," a trader based in Brazil said.

"It's hard to predict if prices will remain high," a second Brazilian trader remarked. "August is the critical month for soybean development in the US. We are in the weather market phase right now."

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the SOYBEX FOB Santos price for September delivery at $484.58/mt on July 31, representing a 3.9% decline week over week.

Nevertheless, sources in the Chinese market indicate that Brazil remains the preferred origin for soybean imports.

"Brazil's old-crop premiums have been difficult to push much lower because they still offer good value relative to US soybeans," a Chinese soybean trader said. The same trader noted that while new-crop premiums are weaker than old-crop levels, the decline has been relatively limited compared with the recent rally in futures, as basis levels were already low.

Platts assessed the CFR China soybean month-one September shipment at $531.31/mt on July 31, with the basis at 255 cents/bu over November (X) futures.

Source: Platts