Shipping's New Order Is Eastern

A new industry report suggests that shipping executives believe the centre of influence in maritime trade is moving decisively eastward, reflecting broader changes in global economic and geopolitical power. Carrying roughly 80% of world trade by volume, shipping has long served as a barometer of where commercial gravity is shifting, and the survey suggests executives now read that gravity as pointing toward Asia.

According to the report, 76% of respondents said the East—defined primarily as China and India—will be the most influential force in global shipping in the years ahead. By contrast, only 17% identified the West, including the US, EU, Japan and Canada, as the leading influence.

The outcome represents more than a routine rebalancing of economic power. As the report notes: "The industry's shift in focus from West to East goes beyond a linear succession or a routine 'passing of the baton.' Through shipping, China is pushing the international system towards a model less based on values and more on transactions."

For an industry responsible for transporting the majority of global trade, that perception matters. Shipping executives increasingly see the future being shaped not by traditional Western institutions, but by the industrial scale, manufacturing strength and maritime ambitions emerging from Asia.

China's Dominance in the Survey

China's influence was particularly evident throughout the survey. Respondents identified China as the world's leading shipbuilding nation, with 69% selecting it as the industry leader. That perception aligns with widely reported industry data showing China accounts for roughly half of global commercial shipbuilding output, far ahead of rivals South Korea and Japan. Some 62% said China operates the most competitive fleet, while 72% believed it carries the greatest economic weight in global shipping. Perhaps most strikingly, 96% of participants described China's role as important for strengthening global shipping, significantly ahead of the European Union at 79% and the US at 73%.

One executive quoted in the report captured the prevailing sentiment, describing China as a place defined by "the speed, the organisation and the sense that the future is being made there."

China's Dichotomy

Yet the survey also highlights important nuances. While respondents overwhelmingly acknowledge China's industrial and economic dominance, they remain more cautious when assessing management quality and maritime expertise. China was rated as having the most competitive fleet by 62% of respondents, but only 17% said Chinese ship management enjoys the world's best reputation. Greece emerged as the benchmark for maritime know-how, with 42% identifying Greek management expertise as the industry's strongest—a reflection of Greece's long-standing position as one of the largest ship-owning nations by deadweight tonnage.

Athens-based Kapa Research suggests this reflects a broader paradox. Chinese power is increasingly recognised through measurable indicators such as fleet competitiveness, economic scale and shipbuilding output, while traditional maritime centres continue to command respect in operational excellence and management capability.

The report also argues that industry perceptions may be moving faster than geopolitical realities. The researchers note "an observable disconnect between the objective geopolitical capacity of the West and its subjective valuation by the shipping industry's leaders." They add that respondents may be underestimating Western structural power while evaluating the Eastern rise predominantly through industrial metrics. Western influence persists in areas such as insurance, arbitration, classification and the dollar-denominated financing that underpin much of global shipping. Nevertheless, the survey records what the report describes as "a clear psychological shift of the industry favouring China in the constant 'battle of impressions.'"

Leadership Perceptions

That shift extends beyond economics into attitudes toward political leadership. Chinese President Xi Jinping emerged as the highest-rated global leader among respondents, recording a net favourability score of +44. The report attributes some of this support to perceptions of policy predictability and stability, particularly during periods of geopolitical disruption. Xi achieved a 63% favourable rating compared with 19% unfavourable.
"The paradox is hard to miss," the report says. "An authoritarian leader is seen as a source of stability for long-term business planning, while the traditional leader of the free world is treated as an unpredictable source of tariffs and protectionist policies."

Instability Matters

While the East-West power shift dominates the survey's findings, this is against a backdrop of growing geopolitical instability. Indeed, 76% of respondents identified geopolitical crises in Ukraine, the Red Sea and the Middle East as the most serious problem facing global shipping today. Those crises have had tangible operational effects, with attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea forcing many carriers to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, adding days of transit time and absorbing vessel capacity.

Yet shipping executives appear unusually confident despite that uncertainty. The report reveals that 70% believe the condition of global shipping has improved during the past five years, while 94% expressed optimism about their company's future.

Many respondents appear to regard volatility not simply as a challenge but as a feature of the industry's operating environment. As one participant observed, "instability is our new operating environment."

The report goes further, arguing that shipping increasingly behaves as a counter-cyclical industry, benefiting from disruption rather than being weakened by it, with nearly half of respondents saying global shipping benefits from turmoil rather than peace.

Environment vs. Competitiveness

Alongside geopolitics, shipping executives identified environmental regulation and competitiveness as the defining strategic issue of the coming decade. Seventy per cent said the tension between environmental regulation and competitiveness will shape the future of shipping, while 53% pointed to competition between Western and Asian shipping interests.

The report portrays decarbonisation as a focal point in the broader struggle between competing economic models, stating: "The West sees shipping as a vehicle for the green transition. China sees it as a lever of national power and geo-economic expansion."

That divergence is creating growing concern among shipping companies. Fifty-five per cent of executives believe the inclusion of shipping in the EU Emissions Trading System damages European competitiveness more than it advances decarbonisation. Shipping was phased into the EU ETS starting in 2024, requiring operators to pay for emissions from voyages to and from EU ports. Furthermore, 68% are pessimistic about achieving the IMO's net-zero target by 2050, a goal adopted by the International Maritime Organization in its 2023 greenhouse gas strategy.

One shipowner summarised the industry's frustration in the phrase: "We pay to be green. They pay to be competitive."

Digitalisation Progresses

In contrast, digitalisation appears to be progressing more smoothly. Remote monitoring systems are now deployed by 73% of companies, voyage optimisation tools by 72%, and predictive maintenance technologies by 55%. While only 7% currently make extensive use of artificial intelligence, executives expect AI to have its greatest impact in fleet management and commercial decision-making.

The report concludes that shipping's next competitive divide will centre on data ownership, AI capabilities and cybersecurity. As one respondent remarked: "Better positioning produces better data, which produces better positioning."

Source: Baltic Exchange