Germany risks natural gas shortages this winter if temperatures turn out colder than in previous years, the country's gas storage association has warned.

With current gas storage levels at 54.52%, the industry association INES said the best it could achieve by November 1 would be 77%. That figure would exceed the latest target set by the German government, but it would fall short of the level of gas normally held in storage as of November 1. As a result, if December and January turn very cold, shortages may emerge.

Storage has become central to Germany's energy security since the loss of Russian pipeline gas deliveries following the invasion of Ukraine, which ended decades in which Germany relied on Russia as its single largest gas supplier. Storage facilities now serve as the primary buffer against winter demand peaks, since Germany no longer receives pipeline gas via Nord Stream and must rely on LNG imports, Norwegian pipeline supply, and domestic production.

However, it is far from certain that Germany's gas storage caverns will actually reach the 77% full level, the head of INES suggested, as quoted by Reuters. Reaching this level by November 1 would require an injection rate of 1 terawatt-hour daily, and injection rates over the past three weeks have been lower than that, Sebastian Heinemann said.

At current injection rates, Germany's storage will only be 63% full as of November 1, he also warned. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, Germany is currently injecting gas into storage at a rate of around 900 GWh daily.

If the winter is mild, gas storage that is 77% full would be enough to cover seasonal demand and would leave Germany with storage 38% full by April 1, the executive noted. However, if the winter turns out colder than hoped, some days in January could see a gap between gas demand and supply of as much as 25%.

The overall gas storage level for the European Union is approaching 70%, with some countries above 90%, including Portugal and Poland. Germany, however, is the biggest consumer of gas in the EU and the country with the most storage capacity.

Gas buyers have not been in a rush to purchase LNG for winter storage because of prices. Normally, LNG prices dip over the summer, but this year they have remained elevated because of the war in the Middle East, along with higher consumption in parts of the world, including Europe, amid several hotter-than-usual periods.

The pace of injections over the coming weeks, along with European LNG import flows and winter temperatures, will determine whether Germany enters December with the storage cushion the association says is needed.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com