Shares of Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI) jumped 31.15% on Friday to close at $5.81, rebounding sharply from Thursday's $4.43 close as trading volume reached roughly 15.3 million shares. The surge has revived takeover speculation around the crypto exchange, although no buyer has made a confirmed offer and there is no indication that Gemini is currently in active sale talks.

Still Far Below Its IPO Price

Despite Friday's rebound, GEMI remains about 79% below the $28 price at which the company went public in September 2025. The steep decline has pushed Gemini's market capitalization down to roughly $753 million, a fraction of the approximately $4 billion valuation the crypto platform reached at its peak.

That lower valuation is bringing takeover talk back into focus, with attention turning to what a potential buyer would actually be purchasing at current prices. At these levels, the purchase centers on regulated infrastructure and an existing customer base rather than on a growing business, which is precisely why the discount itself has kept the company on the acquisition radar.

Speculative Interest, No Confirmed Bid

Last month, Lorenzo Valente, digital assets research director at ARK Invest, suggested that Hyperliquid could acquire Gemini and use it as a regulated U.S. route for perpetual futures and prediction markets. There is no evidence that Hyperliquid is pursuing such a transaction. The idea has nonetheless highlighted the strategic value of Gemini's regulated infrastructure.

According to CoinDesk, some potential buyers previously examined Gemini's since-closed European and U.K. operations, mainly for their licenses. No transaction was completed after the parties disagreed over valuation.

Fundamentals Under Pressure

Gemini's exchange business has weakened materially. Second-quarter exchange revenue fell 38% from a year earlier to $12.5 million, according to CoinDesk, while spot trading volume dropped 66% to $3.8 billion. Assets held on the platform also fell to $8.4 billion from $18.2 billion.

The company continues to post losses. Yahoo Finance lists second-quarter revenue of $45.48 million and a net loss of $107.72 million.

Those weaker operating figures have put more attention on assets that another crypto company would find hard to build from scratch: Gemini's licenses, custody systems and existing customer relationships.

Winklevoss Control Remains Key

Any full-company deal would depend heavily on Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. The brothers effectively control 94.5% of Gemini's voting power, according to CoinDesk. That structure could make negotiations simpler, since a buyer would be dealing with two controlling founders, but it also makes a takeover without their support extremely difficult.

Friday's 31% rally lifted GEMI sharply, but the stock still trades far below its IPO level. The latest confirmed market data puts GEMI at $5.81 with a market capitalization of about $753 million. For now, takeover discussion remains speculation, with no confirmed bidder or announced transaction. The developments that would move the story forward are identifiable: a disclosed approach that secures the support of two founders holding 94.5% of the voting power, and upcoming quarterly results showing whether the declines in exchange revenue, trading volume and platform assets have stabilized. Until then, the distance between Friday's $5.81 close and the $28 IPO price remains the market's running measure of what Gemini's regulated footprint is currently priced at.

This article originally appeared on CoinCentral.