Gemini's third-quarter 2026 results revealed a widening divide between institutional and retail trading on the cryptocurrency exchange. Although overall spot volume increased, retail user activity continued to decline, reaching its lowest level in three years.

According to the Gemini Q3 earnings report (PDF), total spot volume rose 18% to $4.5 billion. The growth was driven almost entirely by institutional trading, which climbed 26% to $3.9 billion. Retail trading volume, by contrast, fell 14% to $600 million.

The figures indicate that Gemini has not posted such weak retail quarterly numbers since Q3 2023, underscoring the growing gap between institutional and individual involvement on the platform. The pattern shows how the exchange's volume growth has shifted toward larger institutional participants while engagement from individual customers continues to soften.

Institutional Activity Powers Volume Growth

Gemini recorded higher spot volume for the period, driven by increased participation from institutional clients. According to the company, the rise was attributed to greater institutional trading in Zcash, a privacy-focused cryptocurrency, as well as market-making. Those developments allowed spot volume to expand even as individual customer activity declined.

The mix shift shows up clearly in the proportions: institutional clients accounted for roughly 87% of the quarter's $4.5 billion in spot volume, leaving retail traders with about 13%. Gemini did not offer an explicit reason for the drop in retail volume, which took the form of a 14% decline in spot activity during the quarter.

Even so, the exchange earned more revenue. Gemini reported Q3 exchange revenue of $13.4 million, a 7% increase compared with the previous quarter. Institutional revenue more than doubled, making a significant contribution to the outcome. Nevertheless, retail clients remained the source of more than three-quarters of Gemini's exchange revenue, even though institutional activity produced about six and a half times the retail volume. Despite the growing importance of institutional trading volume, retail customers continue to serve as the company's primary revenue source — a distinction that sets Gemini's business model apart, and one that makes a shrinking retail base disproportionately consequential for the company's core income.

Crypto Exchanges Look Beyond Traditional Trading

Gemini is not the only crypto platform experiencing lower activity in parts of its traditional exchange services. Other major firms have introduced prediction markets and event products — venues where users trade contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events — as ways to boost revenue as traditional spot trading softens.

According to Coinbase's data, the company saw a 9% decrease in consumer spot trading volume during the quarter, to $23.4 billion. Commenting on the results, Coinbase CFO Alesia Haas noted the positive momentum in prediction markets.

Robinhood's crypto business has also declined. Its crypto revenue plunged 55% year-over-year to $120 million, while revenue from its event contracts rose sixfold to $173 million.

Gemini has likewise been growing its prediction markets segment through Gemini Predictions, whose revenue grew 52% quarter-over-quarter to $796,000. While that growth marks an achievement, prediction markets still represent only a small fraction of Gemini's total operations, and revenue from the unit has not been sufficient to make up for weaknesses elsewhere.

Gemini Predictions Sees Stronger Activity in October

Despite the decline in retail activity, spot trading remains an important part of Gemini's exchange business as the company scales its prediction market operations ahead of the fourth quarter.

According to Gemini investor materials, the average number of daily active participants on Gemini Predictions in October was about 50% higher than the quarterly average. The growth comes as the platform faces pressure from weaker retail participation.

The platform also attracted new clients. Nearly one-third of prediction market participants who signed up in October were new to Gemini, twice the proportion recorded in the third quarter. The figures suggest prediction markets could draw customers who may not have previously used Gemini's traditional crypto exchange services, potentially supporting a retail recovery by bringing new users into the broader platform.

For that reason, the October engagement metrics stand out as numbers to track through the fourth quarter, offering an early indication of whether the prediction-markets push can broaden Gemini's retail base. The firm is also working to expand the availability of its event contracts through partnerships with other financial platforms.

Gemini Expands Prediction Market Partnership With Apex

Gemini aims to offer its regulated cryptocurrency event contracts outside its own platform through a partnership with Apex Fintech Solutions, a firm that provides brokerage infrastructure to financial platforms. The two firms announced the arrangement on August 24, 2026, and it will bring Gemini's prediction market products to Apex's brokerage operation.

Under the proposed partnership, Gemini Titan will be the sole platform offering crypto event contracts through Apex's Futures Commission Merchant. The collaboration is designed to help Gemini expand its prediction market business by using Apex's brokerage services. The deal announced in August, however, remains non-binding, meaning it has yet to be finalized as Gemini works to reach traders beyond its own platform.

Gemini's push to grow its prediction market comes as institutional activity on the exchange rises and retail trading declines — the same divergence highlighted in its Q3 results.