CNN data analyst Harry Enten warned on Wednesday that Republicans risk losing their congressional majorities if gasoline prices remain elevated through the November midterm elections.

With 76 days remaining until the Nov. 3 election, one of the biggest problems for Republicans on the ballot, Enten noted, is that voters angry at both parties are breaking toward Democratic candidates. In House race preferences among voters dissatisfied with both parties, Democrats were chosen 49 percent of the time, compared with 26 percent for Republicans.

The dynamic, Enten said, is rooted in the economy. A CBS/YouGov poll shows that anti-party sentiment centers on policies around the cost of living. On voter attitudes toward economic policy, 36 percent believe Democratic policies help with the cost of living while 38 percent believe they hurt. For Republicans, 24 percent of voters believe their policies help, while 55 percent say they do not.

Affordability remains the top issue of the day, Enten said, and fuel prices are a significant part of it. Oil prices rose again amid claims that no deal has been reached between Iran and the United States.

Enten also pointed to prediction markets, which indicate where gas prices are expected to sit as the election approaches.

"Chance that the gas prices on election day are above $3.50 per gallon, look at this: 81 percent chance, according to the prediction market, that number up like a rocket. This is why ... Americans think that Republicans hurt them on the cost of living. This number holds — this number, right, well, I'll tell you this much: Adiós, amigos, goodbye, see you later [to] that Republican House majority, and maybe that Senate majority as well," Enten said.

Prices for groceries, housing, health care and energy remain central worries for Americans, with many households saying they are only getting by or struggling. That broader affordability squeeze helps explain why economic messaging continues to dominate campaign coverage, and it also leaves little room for parties to make gains without addressing day-to-day costs. In the 2026 cycle, Democrats have gained ground by emphasizing lower everyday costs and health care, while dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump's handling of inflation and the economy has weakened the GOP's traditional advantage.

Still, the Democratic edge is narrow rather than decisive. A recent poll found 54 percent of voters trusted Democrats more on the economy, versus 45 percent for Republicans, while another survey found near parity between the parties.

Source: Alternet