Gasoline prices surged this week as President Donald Trump's military conflict with Iran intensified, a development that CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten warns will place Republicans in significant political jeopardy.

The average price for a gallon of gasoline rose 13 cents from the prior week to $4.11. Gas prices are among the most visible day-to-day costs for voters, and increases can quickly become a broader political problem when they coincide with concerns about inflation and foreign policy. According to a poll conducted within the last 24 hours, approximately 65 percent of Americans — roughly two in three — said the war is not worth the resulting increase in fuel costs.

"You know, this is where President Trump seems so politically tone deaf," Enten said. "I mean, this is what we're talking about, saying, 'Oh, you know, it's it's worth it to me, you know, I'm not actually taking part in the midterm elections.'"

Voters are placing the blame for higher gas prices squarely on Republicans, Enten noted. When asked which party they hold responsible for elevated fuel costs, only 27 percent of Americans pointed to Democrats, while approximately two-thirds identified Republicans.

This undercuts any assumption that voter dissatisfaction with the administration will not affect down-ballot races, Enten argued. With Republicans controlling the House, Senate, and the presidency, voters have no alternative outlet for their frustration, he said. That matters because midterm elections determine control of Congress, where even modest shifts in public opinion can influence the balance of power.

The polling reflects a broader reversal on inflation — the very issue that propelled Trump back to the White House. In October 2024, Trump held a six-point advantage over Kamala Harris on the question of which candidate voters trusted more to manage inflation, a margin that contributed to his electoral victory. That dynamic has now flipped entirely, according to a recent Fox News poll, with Democrats trusted by 10 points on the cost of living — one of the largest leads the party has held on the issue in Fox News polling history.

"This is just nutter butter," Enten said. "This is movement that kills parties, that kills their electoral aspirations."

Enten described the reversal as historically significant, observing that inflation was the issue that cost Joe Biden and Harris the White House — and could now do the same to Republicans in Congress.

"If these numbers hold, it's very hard to imagine that Republicans are able to hold onto the House of Representatives when the number one issue, the Democrats are trusted by 10 points in a complete switcheroo from where we were just a year and a half ago," he said.

"These are the numbers that Democrats absolutely love, and Republicans absolutely have to despise."

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