Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn believes Bitcoin's bear market ended in June 2026 and that investors have since entered a period of accumulation. In an October 22 report, Thorn argued for buying and holding Bitcoin even after weeks of trading around the $80,000 level, framing the current phase as one suited to long-term holders rather than short-term traders.

Based on prices cited in the report, Bitcoin has recovered from its June low near $58,500 but remains roughly 35% below its October 2025 record above $126,000. Thorn said the gap leaves room for recovery, although he acknowledged that further gains remain uncertain.

Not everyone shares that assessment. In an X post published on October 27, @jason offered a sharply bearish view:

A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started. Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now. Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue. We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months. Why? Because there are far too many dynamic places to… pic.twitter.com/fK8zRNvPU0

— @jason (@Jason) October 27, 2026

Technical Signs Point to a Possible Bottom

According to Galaxy, Bitcoin spent 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average — a long-term trend indicator calculated from roughly a year of weekly closing prices and closely watched by technical analysts — before moving back above it in September. The asset then recorded five consecutive weekly closes above that measure through October 18.

The firm also reported slower selling by longtime holders. Owners of coins untouched for five years or longer moved 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, down from 67,000 BTC per month in 2024.

Demand, however, remains uneven. US spot Bitcoin ETFs — funds that hold Bitcoin directly — attracted $526.6 million in net inflows, a measure of purchases minus withdrawals, on October 19, yet prices stayed weak afterward, and daily inflows have so far failed to produce a sustained rally.

Large Investors Reduce Speculative Positions

Galaxy said asset managers' net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures — contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that give institutions exposure to Bitcoin's price without direct ownership — have fallen 57% since the cryptocurrency reached its record high. Thorn views the decline as evidence that short-term traders have scaled back their exposure to the asset.

At the same time, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had added approximately 87,000 BTC since the June low as of October 22, according to Galaxy's estimate. The firm said the combination of reduced futures activity and continued ETF purchases points to demand from investors holding Bitcoin outright rather than trading it.

Institutional interest also continues through proposed products. Long-established asset manager Franklin Templeton recently filed for two stock ETFs with Bitcoin allocations, which would direct stock dividends into Bitcoin, though the filings do not confirm when or whether the funds will launch for trading.

Debt Concerns Meet Market Risks

Thorn additionally cited rising US debt, federal deficits, and borrowing costs. Galaxy argues that these fiscal pressures could increase interest in Bitcoin's fixed supply — capped at 21 million coins by its protocol — while emphasizing that the asset's price still depends on investor demand and broader market conditions.

A recent Bitcoin market update examined whether the $80,000 level could hold ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. Changes in interest rates and financial markets remain possible sources of short-term volatility, the firm noted.

Galaxy named $76,540 as the specific test of its bottoming thesis. A weekly close below that level without a recovery within a month would weaken its case. The firm also identified stock market losses, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing — long discussed as a potential future challenge to the cryptography underpinning digital assets — as risks to its outlook. Between Wednesday's Fed decision and the coming weekly closes, the thesis has near-term checkpoints that investors can track directly.

Source: CoinCentral (https://coincentral.com/galaxy-sees-bitcoin-bottom-but-76540-remains-a-test/)