Freight rates are not going down. That is the blunt assessment of Kevin Nolan, a serial freight brokerage entrepreneur who has founded multiple billion-dollar-plus companies and currently serves as Founder of Sopa Creek. In a video interview, Nolan said that unprecedented mid-summer contract re-rating activity and tender rejection rates remaining in double digits confirm the freight industry is in the earliest stages of a genuine market recovery rather than a false start.

"Contract rates lead everything," Nolan said, explaining that RFP pricing has historically taken place in October and November. The fact that re-rating has been permitted in July, he argued, signals that shippers recognize they quoted too low in prior cycles and are now willing to accept higher rates. "I feel pretty good about freight rates for the next eighteen months," he said.

Nolan pointed to tender rejection data as further evidence of recovery. He noted that rejections dropped from 17% to 14% in August — a level he called elevated and unusual for that time of year. The decline, he explained, reflects mini-bids being settled at mutually acceptable contract rates rather than a softening market. For context, tender rejection rates above 10% are typically associated with tight capacity; during the pandemic-era freight boom of 2020–2021, rejections routinely exceeded 20%, but they had fallen below 4% during the depths of the freight downturn that began in 2022. "In August, guys. I don't know if that's ever happened," he said of the 14% reading. "Freight rates aren't going down. Okay. That's what I'll tell you. Freight rates are not going down."

Nolan began his career at C.H. Robinson's Columbia, South Carolina branch, which he described as a true freight brokerage, entrepreneurial-spirited office. He and Drew Wilkerson, now CEO of RXO, were trained there at different times by managers Mike Borwick and Kevin Harthin. Two of the top five freight brokers in the industry emerged from that single office.

On the legal front, Nolan weighed in on the $604 million nuclear verdict against C.H. Robinson in Texas, calling it a seismic event for the brokerage industry. He noted that the verdict followed the Montgomery decision by only three months. The trial occurred amid a broader trend of rising nuclear verdicts — generally defined as awards exceeding $10 million — in trucking-related litigation, which industry groups including the American Transportation Research Institute have tracked as an escalating concern for carriers, brokers, and insurers. Nolan said Robinson would have to fight the judgment rather than settle, because a settlement at that figure would effectively invite further litigation industry-wide. "I thought the plaintiff attorney didn't like 604. He would have liked an 80, right? Or a 70," Nolan said. "It forces C.H. to [fight] — because if they don't, I mean, everyone does, right?"

Despite the legal overhang, Nolan disclosed that he purchased more C.H. Robinson stock the week of the verdict. He cited the company's roughly 60% stock gain over the prior 18 months, its standing as the largest freight broker in the industry, and its recent record quarterly performance. "Maybe they could clean up their bedside manner a little bit, not talk about cutting jobs so much, not talk about AI so much," Nolan remarked. "But when it comes to the biggest and the best freight brokerage in the industry, you know, that's C.H. Robinson."

Regarding the broader Wall Street sentiment toward transportation, Nolan acknowledged that investors have grown cautious. He attributed some of the sector's challenges to insurance costs, which he described as a growing and unpredictable line item for brokers. "Up until about four or five years ago, I didn't have to put more than nine digits, ten digits in fraud on my budget," he said. "Now insurance costs — what's that line item going to be? It's one of the reasons why investors are a little spookish, because they don't know what brokers are going to have to budget for in insurance."

Nolan noted that the underlying accident occurred in Mississippi, but the jury trial took place in Texas — a jurisdiction known for large jury settlements. He observed that the jury assigned approximately 28% responsibility to C.H. Robinson, and when that percentage was multiplied against the $604 million figure, it aligned closely with the company's insurance limit — a detail he found telling.

Nolan offered a practical carrier vetting framework, advising brokers to evaluate which insurance company covers a fleet. Major insurers, he explained, conduct on-site safety and hiring reviews before binding coverage. "I got sales guys that are trying to push insurance through to all kinds of people for truckers, and they are the best vetters at the truck insurance companies," he said. "The big ones, if they have a certain number of units, they go meet them, they go on site, they look at their safety, they look at their hiring practices because they're putting their necks on the line as an insurance company. So I love vetting by insurance."

He cited Great West as an example of a top-tier insurer whose coverage suggests a quality carrier, while cautioning against fleets insured through casual arrangements. "If they were sold Progressive out of somebody's apartment because you knew them, I mean, like, you gotta pay attention to who the agent is, not only the market," Nolan said.

As a secondary vetting tool, Nolan pointed to factoring companies, noting that 90% of truckers use factoring services. "You're giving them money if you're a factoring company," he said, making those relationships a useful proxy for carrier quality. He was explicitly critical of relying on FMCSA safety ratings, stating: "The government has come out and said what's on the FMCSA, don't use it to judge. And I'm like, well, why have the ratings? Why have a satisfactory or a conditional or whatever else if it doesn't matter?"

Additional red flags Nolan identified include a two-week-old MC number and generic email addresses such as "bigtruckin462@gmail.com" appearing on load confirmations. He also stressed the importance of length of time in business and recommended that brokers consult peers about their experience with specific carriers.

On track and trace, Nolan called it a critical component of freight brokerage, noting that fewer than 5% of loads require human interaction after pickup. He suggested that tracking methods should be agreed upon by the shipper and broker upfront, before a load is picked up, and acknowledged that third-party and offshore resources have been heavily used in this area.

Nolan was sharply critical of the capital influx and new entrants that flooded freight brokerage from 2019 through approximately 2024. He argued that operators willing to lose money — citing a specific example of losing $800 moving a single load of beer — drove a race to the bottom on rates without improving industry fundamentals. During that period, venture capital and private equity poured into logistics technology startups, accelerating digitization but also enabling pricing models that undercut established brokers. "All that money that came in, it made us better technology-wise, it brought us more attention, but it didn't help in the sense of freight rates," he said. "That did not help." He characterized that era as a contributor to the prolonged freight downturn and said its unwinding is now helping set the stage for a sustained rate recovery.

Nolan also highlighted the scale of the sector, noting that freight and logistics — encompassing international shipping and warehousing — still represents more than 27% of GDP, making it one of the largest and most fragmented sectors in the U.S. economy. He pointed to the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, which deregulated the trucking industry by removing federal restrictions on entry and pricing, as effectively the starting point for modern freight brokerage. "It's actually younger than me if you factor that in," he said.

Regarding plaintiff attorneys, Nolan acknowledged their strategic sophistication. "They're some of the best businessmen and women I've been around," he said. "They don't take things unless they feel like they're going to make money on them. They only get paid if they win." He emphasized that brokers, shippers, and carriers all form part of the chain of events in any given load, and that plaintiff attorneys are finding increasing aspects to scrutinize.

Nolan praised his own carrier selection team, saying they sometimes limit capacity but consistently make sound decisions. "I say they protect the house," he said.

Despite the legal cloud over the industry, Nolan struck an optimistic note about the road ahead. "C.H. Robinson had its best quarter ever," he noted. "The brokers that I'm hanging out with and talking to feel pretty good about their business."

Source: FreightWaves