The national Truckload Rejection Index stands at 14.36% — well above its six-month average of 10.9% — and has held at elevated levels for months rather than spiking and retreating, according to FreightWaves SONAR data. Flatbed rejections are running at 23.5% and refrigerated at 19.46%, both outpacing the national average. For context, the Tender Rejection Index measures the percentage of contracted freight that carriers turn down, so sustained elevated readings indicate carriers are consistently declining loads they are contractually obligated to haul — a hallmark of genuine capacity scarcity. The sustained nature of these readings, rather than any single week's figure, is the clearest indicator that capacity is not self-correcting quickly.

A recent FreightWaves market update identifies five interlocking pillars driving the tightness in the freight market: capacity is leaving the market, spot rates are strong and durable, demand is steady but not surging, shippers are pivoting toward asset-based and dedicated capacity, and driver recruiting is becoming materially harder. Each of these pillars surfaced in Q2 earnings calls from major public carriers — including Knight-Swift, Werner, and J.B. Hunt, three of the largest trucking and logistics operators in North America — providing independent corroboration of the SONAR data. The overall picture points to a supply-driven tightening rather than a demand-driven one, a distinction that matters because supply-led cycles historically have different durations and rate trajectories than demand-led ones.

Pillar 1: Capacity Is Leaving the Market

Knight-Swift management attributed rapid tightening to supply-driven dynamics, with spot rates exceeding normal seasonality and tender rejections reaching levels the carrier had not seen since 2021 — based on its own internal data, not solely SONAR figures. Both Knight-Swift and Werner specifically called out FMCSA and DOT efforts to revoke invalid CDLs and shut down noncompliant driving schools as forces removing low-cost, noncompliant capacity from the market. Werner also flagged ELD providers exiting alongside the school and driver removals, describing regulatory pressures that are eliminating what it termed "shadow capacity" — small or informal operators who had been adding trucks outside the fully compliant fleet ecosystem.

On the SONAR side, the national Truckload Rejection Index at 14.36% remains well above the 10.9% six-month average, with flatbed at 23.5% and refrigerated at 19.46% running even hotter than the overall national figure. Although all segments have cooled slightly from their early-summer peak, elevated rejections have been sustained over months rather than appearing as a short-lived spike — evidence that capacity constraints are not self-correcting quickly.

Pillar 2: Spot Rates Are Strong and Durable

FreightWaves' National Truckload Index (NTI), which tracks spot rates, showed a modest dip in mid-June before resuming its climb. Stripping out fuel costs — the key durability test — spot rates continue to move higher independent of diesel prices, indicating that willingness to pay and lack of capacity, not fuel, are the primary drivers. As the update noted: "Rates can rise even when diesel is falling, and we see that in the data."

The NTI spot rate and diesel prices are not moving in tandem, reinforcing the conclusion that elevated spot rates reflect capacity scarcity and shipper willingness to pay rather than simply passing through higher fuel costs. This matters because the spot market, while only a minority share of total truckload freight moved, serves as a leading indicator for broader rate expectations and often influences the next round of annual contract negotiations between carriers and large shippers.

Pillar 3: Demand Is Steady but Not Surging

SONAR's volume indexes — including the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) and Shippers Tender Volume Index (STVI) — are remaining relatively flat to modest rather than surging. The SONAR Tender Volume Index of accepted volume has also remained steady, with acceptance ticking up slightly. That improvement in acceptance appears tied to new, higher contract rates coming into effect, leading to fewer rejections and better tender compliance rather than a genuine increase in freight volumes.

Knight-Swift's CEO characterized the current cycle as supply-driven rather than demand-driven, a view consistent with the flat-to-modest volume data.

Where volume is rising is in intermodal. J.B. Hunt reported higher intermodal volume attributed to rising fuel costs and constrained truckload supply pushing freight toward rail. This represents a mode shift — as truckload capacity exits, some volume is forced onto the rails — rather than a broad increase in overall freight demand.

Pillar 4: Shippers Are Moving Toward Asset-Based and Dedicated Capacity

This pillar leans more heavily on earnings commentary than SONAR data, but it aligns with the current regulatory environment and liability concerns. J.B. Hunt reported that its dedicated pipeline was at record levels, citing a tight driver market, regulatory pressures, and customer demand for reliable capacity. Werner CEO Derek Leathers noted on his company's earnings call that organic dedicated business is growing as a whole — not solely driven by fleet acquisitions but expanding across the segment. The shift toward dedicated fleets is significant because dedicated arrangements lock in capacity and pricing for shippers who cannot afford the volatility of the spot market, but they also reduce the pool of trucks available for the broader freight network.

Pillar 5: Driver Recruiting Is Getting Harder

The driver recruiting picture is worsening across the board, compounded by the regulatory environment. Knight-Swift pointed to the same CDL revocation and noncompliant school shutdown dynamics, noting that regulatory enforcement is shrinking the eligible driver pool. J.B. Hunt flagged increased sign-on bonuses and targeted wage increases as responses to the tightening labor market, and identified these elevated labor costs as a potential margin pressure point going forward.

With the eligible driver pool shrinking under regulatory enforcement and a healthier freight market giving drivers more options to chase higher pay, carriers are absorbing recruiting costs that are unlikely to recede quickly. Several carriers have announced driver pay increases, and industry guests have consistently reported that recruiting has become more difficult.

Convergence of Signals

Every one of the five pillars showed up almost verbatim in Q2 earnings calls from the largest public carriers in the truckload sector. They are describing their own market in the same terms that FreightWaves has used throughout the year — and the SONAR data independently supports each signal.

The convergence of all five indicators suggests that the current tightness reflects structural shifts in freight capacity rather than a temporary seasonal pattern. National tender rejections at 14.36%, well above the six-month average of 10.9%, with flatbed at 23.5% and refrigerated at 19.46%, are being driven by supply-side dynamics — including FMCSA and DOT crackdowns on invalid CDLs and noncompliant driving schools — while demand remains steady without surging.

Source: FreightWaves