Veteran Republican strategist and pollster Frank Luntz said President Donald Trump and the White House have mishandled their economic message in the final stretch before the midterm elections, leaving no realistic opportunity for a course correction before voters head to the polls.

Luntz pointed in particular to conflicting signals from Trump and Vice President JD Vance over how the economy is affecting young Americans. Vance said recently that "most Republicans … don't pay enough attention to the affordability problems that are affecting young people."

Trump, for his part, has doubled down on an upbeat assessment. In a Truth Social post published Friday, he wrote that "inflation is way down under 'Trump.' Income for people and companies way up. The Golden Age of America is upon us."

Appearing Friday on CNN, Luntz brushed aside a question from anchor Boris Sanchez about whether Vance's message of empathy was a good tactic. "The message should have been delivered months ago, and that it's basically too late now," Luntz said. "At this point, you're trying to turn out your voters and you're not trying to antagonize or excite the opposition." The interview is available on YouTube.

According to Luntz, Democrats now hold a 2 percent advantage in turnout, meaning Democratic voters are currently more likely to cast ballots — enough, he said, to push races that would otherwise be decided by 1 percent or less into the Democratic column. "And that matters in some of these Senate races that are absolutely so close to call that you can't distinguish them. And it could have an impact on three or four House races as well," he said. Because the midterms fall halfway through a president's term and determine the makeup of both the House and the Senate, margins that narrow can effectively decide which party controls Congress.

"The Democratic party has a strong, engaged, active core that are absolutely showing up to the polls," Luntz added. "The Republican core still supports Donald Trump, but not with the same intensity. And we see that not just with younger voters, but all voters."

Luntz said he is watching the Election Day behavior of "paycheck to paycheck" voters — people who have "very little or no savings at the end of the month" and are "most affected by affordability."

"These are individuals who voted for Donald Trump in record numbers," he said. "Not that he won them by a huge amount, but that Republicans normally did not attract that vote. But they came to him in 2024. And I'm watching to see how many of them leave him or look for a Democratic alternative in 2026."

"That will matter in Nebraska. That will matter in Kansas," Luntz continued. "It will matter, particularly in some of these midwestern states that are up for grabs right now."

Luntz voiced similar concern about the two-thirds of white voters without a college degree who backed Trump in all three of his presidential campaigns. A new Marist College poll finds that 44 percent of these likely voters disapprove of Trump's job performance, and Luntz questioned whether the shift would prove a temporary realignment or a lasting problem for his party.

"These are people who have been loyal Democrats who shifted in 2024, and maybe that was the more significant election, because they seem to be heading back to the Democrats in 2026," he said. "I'm going to be following them, trying to understand why you would vote for president Trump in 2024 and choose a Democratic candidate, either for governor or senator in 2026, because that's going to tell us about the election in 2028."

Source: Alternet