France's National Gambling Authority (ANJ) has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, placing the prediction-market platform under renewed regulatory pressure in one of Europe's largest markets.

The ANJ stated that its president issued the network-level blocking request on July 16. The regulator classified Polymarket as an illegal gambling operation, citing concerns that include consumer addiction risks, the absence of know-your-customer (KYC) controls, and the potential for manipulation of betting outcomes.

One specific example raised by the regulator involved the manipulation of weather data — illustrating the breadth of its concerns. Prediction markets extend well beyond elections or cryptocurrency prices; they can involve real-world outcomes where the boundary between forecasting, wagering, and market influence becomes increasingly difficult for regulators to navigate.

The order applies specifically to France and is not a European Union-wide ban. Nevertheless, it serves as a clear warning to the broader prediction-market sector.

Prediction Markets and the Regulatory Identity Problem

Prediction markets have long struggled with a fundamental regulatory identity issue.

Supporters characterize them as information markets: users trade on probabilities, and the resulting prices can reveal collective expectations about future events. This function can be valuable, particularly when markets are liquid and participants have strong incentives to be accurate.

Regulators, however, often see a much simpler activity: betting. A user places money behind an outcome, the outcome resolves, and the user either wins or loses. When that activity is offered to residents without local authorization, gambling regulators tend to intervene.

That is precisely the tension Polymarket faces in France. The platform may be crypto-native, globally accessible, and built around market-based pricing, but the ANJ is evaluating it through the framework of gambling law and consumer protection — a lens that prediction markets have found difficult to escape.

This is not the first time Polymarket has encountered this tension. In January 2022, the platform reached a settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), agreeing to pay $1.4 million and to block US users after the regulator found it had offered event markets without proper registration as a designated contract market. Taiwan also ordered Polymarket to cease operations in 2024. France's action adds another jurisdiction to the list of national authorities applying local gambling or derivatives frameworks to the platform.

Why KYC Compliance Matters

The ANJ's concerns around KYC procedures are central to its case.

Regulators focus not only on whether people are betting, but on who is betting, how users are onboarded, whether minors can access the service, whether problem-gambling protections are in place, and whether suspicious activity can be effectively monitored.

Crypto-based prediction markets present particular challenges for regulators because they frequently operate across borders and rely on digital wallets rather than conventional financial accounts. This creates a structural mismatch: a platform can remain accessible within a jurisdiction even without holding a local license. Users can reach it through standard internet connections, and funds can move via cryptocurrency rails. This dynamic complicates enforcement, which is why regulators sometimes resort to ISP-level blocking.

Blocking does not necessarily eliminate access entirely — users may turn to VPNs or other workarounds. However, it introduces friction and sends an unmistakable signal to platforms, payment providers, and local users.

The Distinct Challenge of Outcome Manipulation

The ANJ's reference to possible manipulation of betting outcomes warrants particular attention.

In traditional financial markets, manipulation typically involves attempts to move an asset's price. In prediction markets, manipulation can take a more unusual form: attempting to influence the real-world event itself.

The severity of this concern varies significantly depending on the market in question. Some outcomes are simply too large for individual traders to sway. Others, however, may be more susceptible — weather data, niche events, small-scale elections, lower-liquidity markets, or outcomes tied to specific data sources can all create problematic incentives.

When a market pays out based on an event that a participant could potentially influence, regulators may perceive heightened consumer and public-interest risks. This does not mean every prediction market is inherently dangerous, but it helps explain why gambling authorities remain unconvinced by the "information market" framing.

France Escalates Pressure on a Rapidly Expanding Sector

Polymarket has emerged as one of the most prominent prediction-market platforms in the cryptocurrency space. Its growth has demonstrated genuine user demand for markets spanning politics, macroeconomic events, sports, culture, crypto-related outcomes, and virtually anything else that can be resolved against a verifiable data source. Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain and saw trading volumes surge during the 2024 US presidential election cycle, when its election prediction markets drew significant public attention.

The regulatory response, however, is equally tangible.

France's action demonstrates that national regulators are prepared to deploy existing gambling-law powers against crypto-native prediction markets. Other countries may consider similar measures if they determine that unlicensed platforms are targeting their local users.

For Polymarket and its competitors, navigating this landscape will likely require more jurisdiction-specific controls, licensing strategies, KYC integration, or geo-restricted access. Such measures may result in a less open user experience, but they could prove necessary for prediction markets seeking to operate at scale.

The broader unresolved question is whether prediction markets can establish a regulatory category that meaningfully distinguishes useful forecasting from unlicensed gambling. Until that happens, platforms are likely to continue encountering country-by-country enforcement actions.

France has now articulated its position clearly: if Polymarket remains accessible to French users without proper authorization, it is subject to being blocked.

This article is based on the French National Gambling Authority's blocking order relating to Polymarket. The original ANJ announcement is available at anj.fr. This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.