Democrats have a strong chance of taking control of the House — and perhaps even the Senate — in the November 2026 midterm elections. President Donald Trump's approval ratings rank among the lowest of any president on record, and, in the words of Robert Reich, the 80-year-old president is "looking and acting ever more demented."

So how long will he last, and what is likely to end his tenure?

Reich, a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and former US secretary of labor, says he put that question to an array of presidential watchers, advisers, and historians, then grouped their answers into four scenarios. He notes that none of those he consulted raised the possibility of Trump dying in office, though that scenario "can't be entirely discounted."

1. He hangs on for two more years

A few of those Reich consulted believe Trump's determination to fill out his term — and to avoid appearing weak or resembling former President Joe Biden — will keep him at his post if he can possibly hold on. Under this scenario, Trump would continue to lose his mental and physical capacities and say and post ever more outrageous things, becoming an object "more ridiculed than feared" while refusing to budge. The world, Reich writes, would be spared by "a few relatively saner people around him who won't allow him to destroy humanity."

2. He resigns within a year and hands the office to Vance

A second view holds that because Trump cares so strongly about his legacy, he will not want to be remembered as frail. Before becoming totally incapacitated, the thinking goes, he would turn the presidency over to Vice President JD Vance, giving Vance a leg up in the 2028 election. Under this scenario, Trump's arrangement with Vance and top officials in Congress would be that, in return for his resignation, they agree to his memorial arch, his name on the Kennedy Center, and his name on the White House ballroom. A resignation would follow the only precedent in American history: Richard Nixon's departure in August 1974, when Vice President Gerald Ford became president under Section 1 of the 25th Amendment.

3. He is impeached and convicted within the year

Some are convinced that if Democrats gain control of the House, they will impeach Trump for high crimes and misdemeanors — a list of alleged wrongdoings Reich describes as "already long" — and that enough Republican senators would join Democrats to reach the two-thirds majority needed to convict. They note that Trump's support among Republican senators is already weakening, and that many would rather not have him as president during the 2028 general election. Trump has been impeached twice before — the House voted to impeach him in 2019 and again in 2021 — and the Senate acquitted him both times; no US president has ever been removed from office by Senate conviction.

4. The 25th Amendment is invoked within six months

Others see this as the likeliest outcome, arguing that at the rate he is deteriorating, Trump's mental and physical losses will soon become obvious. In this scenario, Democratic leaders grow alarmed at his behavior, Vance is eager to take the reins, and congressional Republicans prefer not to have him as president heading into the 2028 election. Under Section 4 of the amendment, Congress would set up a body to declare him unable to "discharge the powers and duties of his office." That provision, never invoked since the amendment's ratification in 1967, pairs the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet — or such other body as Congress may by law establish — to declare a president unable to serve, at which point the Vice President immediately assumes the powers of the presidency on an acting basis.

Reich closes by posing the question to readers: How long will Trump last, and how will he leave office?

Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at