Ford Motor Company is set to report second-quarter 2026 results after Tuesday’s market close, and Wall Street expectations are relatively subdued. Consensus estimates call for adjusted earnings per share of $0.35 to $0.36 and automotive revenue of about $45.86 billion to $47.35 billion.

Those figures would represent modest year-over-year declines. Automotive revenue is expected to fall by roughly 2% to 5% from the $46.94 billion Ford reported in Q2 2025, while adjusted earnings per share would also come in slightly lower than a year earlier.

Ford shares were trading at $14.88 on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.34% ahead of the report.

Analysts have increasingly viewed the quarter as a cyclical low point rather than a sign of broader business deterioration. Earnings estimates have risen 3.7% over the past two months, suggesting that expectations improved gradually as the quarter progressed.

A Monday research note from Jefferies added to that shift in tone. Analyst Philippe Houchois upgraded Ford to Buy from Hold and set a $17.50 price target. In his view, operating conditions are improving and management could raise guidance when it reports results.

Guidance will be a major focus

Ford’s current 2026 outlook calls for adjusted EBIT between $8.5 billion and $10.5 billion, free cash flow of $5 billion to $6 billion, and capital expenditures of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion. Management lifted that guidance in April, factoring in expected tariff reimbursements.

Houchois expects Ford may move toward the upper end of the EBIT range, citing healthy U.S. automotive market fundamentals and more stable production levels. U.S. vehicle sales rose 7.7% in June from a year earlier, a backdrop that could support the company’s second-half outlook. That makes the update important not just for the quarter itself, but for how Ford frames production, costs and cash generation for the rest of 2026.

Novelis restart could support F-150 output

Another key issue for the quarter is the Novelis supply situation. The aluminum supplier to Ford’s F-150 assembly operations resumed activity at its New York facility last month after two fires forced shutdowns.

The disruption had constrained F-Series production volumes during the first half of the year. With supplies now moving normally again, investors are watching for a recovery in manufacturing during the second half, especially because the F-Series is a core contributor to Ford’s truck business and broader North American results.

Attention will also center on Ford Blue, the company’s traditional internal combustion engine business, for signs of margin expansion. That segment has been positioned to help offset continuing losses at Model e, Ford’s electric vehicle division, which keeps the split between legacy operations and EV economics in focus.

Ford has beaten revenue expectations in five straight quarters and topped earnings estimates in seven of the past 10 reporting periods.

Management’s conference call is scheduled for 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday.