Ford Motor reports second-quarter 2026 results after the closing bell Tuesday, and the expectations heading into the release are relatively modest.

Wall Street is looking for adjusted earnings per share of about $0.35 to $0.36 and automotive revenue of roughly $45.86 billion to $47.35 billion. Both figures would mark year-over-year declines, with revenue down about 2% to 5% and EPS slightly below the prior-year period.

Ford Motor Company, ticker F, is trading around $14.88, up about 1.34% Tuesday ahead of the report.

Analysts increasingly view the second quarter as a cyclical low point rather than evidence of a deeper structural issue. EPS estimates have climbed 3.7% over the past 60 days, suggesting confidence has been improving as the quarter developed.

Jefferies added to that optimism on Monday. Analyst Philippe Houchois upgraded Ford from Hold to Buy and assigned a $17.50 price target, citing improving conditions and the possibility that management could raise guidance with this earnings release.

Guidance Is the Main Focus

Ford’s current 2026 outlook calls for adjusted EBIT of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion, free cash flow of $5 billion to $6 billion, and capital expenditures of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion. The company lifted that guidance in April, incorporating expected tariff refunds.

Houchois believes Ford could move closer to the upper end of that EBIT range, pointing to healthy U.S. auto market conditions and normalizing production volumes.

June U.S. auto sales rose 7.7% year over year, providing a supportive demand backdrop heading into the second half of the year. For investors, that makes the guidance update especially important: the quarter is being judged less on the headline revenue decline and more on whether Ford can show that profitability, cash flow and production are stabilizing as supply conditions improve.

F-150 Production Recovery in Focus

Another key issue for investors is the Novelis aluminum supply situation. The supplier to Ford’s F-150 production line restarted operations at its New York plant last month after two fires forced a shutdown.

That disruption weighed on F-Series volumes throughout the first half of the year. With supply now normalizing, analysts expect production to recover in the second half.

Investors will also be watching Ford Blue, the company’s traditional internal combustion engine business, for margin improvement. That division has been expected to carry more of the load while Model e, Ford’s electric-vehicle segment, continues to post losses.

Ford has beaten revenue estimates in five straight quarters and has topped EPS expectations in seven of the last ten quarters.

The earnings call is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET Tuesday.