After Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's shift in stance on forward guidance in response to the central bank's reaction function, the FOMC meeting minutes will arguably take on greater importance than they did before. Warsh offered little of substance in kicking the can down the road. As a result, a closer look at the discussions that took place during the meeting — and at the key triggers that may point to another rate hike — is set to be deeply scrutinised. The minutes, released three weeks after each meeting, offer a far fuller account of the Committee's discussion than the brief statement published alongside the rate decision itself.

It is already known that Fed policymakers Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari dissented in favour of a 25 basis point rate hike. The key question now is how much backing they actually received from their peers, particularly among non-voters. Because the minutes record the views of all meeting participants — voters and non-voters alike — rather than only those with a formal vote, they are the clearest available guide to how much traction the hawkish case found across the wider Committee.

Much will ride on the Fed's phrasing of certain views — whether "several", "some", "a few", or "many" members shared that perspective.

Ultimately, the majority view is already understood to be one that supported holding interest rates at least until the next meeting in September. In all likelihood, that will be the key takeaway from the minutes, and it would be reflective of a more wait-and-see, meeting-by-meeting approach.

That said, it does not mean markets should be unprepared for any potential surprises or hints that could provide a better indication of what the Federal Reserve will do next month.

As things stand, Fed funds futures show the odds of a rate hike in September at ~31%. That is not a particularly convincing narrative tiding over markets at the moment — even with some softer data points at the start of August.

But even if the minutes contain no firm signals, they may at least help identify the specific triggers that Fed policymakers are looking at for clues on their threshold for raising rates again.

Citi notes that:

"The FOMC minutes should largely reinforce what is already known: a divided Committee, including three dissents in favour of raising rates. That said, the discussion will likely feel somewhat stale given that it predates the recent run of softer data, which has shifted the policy narrative in a more dovish direction."

Meanwhile, BofA adds to that in saying:

"The July FOMC minutes will be stale because the soft July jobs and inflation data since the Fed meeting have considerably reduced market pricing of hikes. Still, we will be looking to get a sense of how many FOMC participants (besides the three dissenters) wanted a hike or would at least have been willing to go along with one. We're also curious about the committee's thresholds for a September move, though we wouldn't expect anything too specific on this front."