The Cook Political Report on Thursday moved Florida's open governor's race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican," a downgrade that surprised political observers in a state where Republican seats were not expected to be in doubt.

Republicans already faced an uphill battle to retain the U.S. House and Senate, as well as numerous state-level offices, this cycle. But until recently, the prospect of a Florida race slipping out of the "Solid Republican" column — in a state known as a retiree haven — had not been considered realistic. The nonpartisan forecaster still rates Trump-backed Republican Rep. Byron Donalds as the favorite over Democrat David Jolly, but it now sees the contest as one that could become competitive.

"Florida Democrats had long been more bullish on the open governor's race than the Senate contest. That's in part because gubernatorial races are typically less nationalized than federal ones, but also because Democrats have a strong ticket in former GOP Rep. David Jolly and his running mate, former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham," the Cook Political Report wrote on Thursday. "While Jolly trails Trump-backed Rep. Byron Donalds by more than a 10-1 margin in fundraising, his ability to potentially reach out to independents and disaffected Republicans makes this a unique contest that could possibly become competitive."

"With that in mind, we are moving this race from Solid to Likely Republican," the analysis continued. "Jolly would still need a significant financial boost to mount a robust statewide television campaign and have a real shot. For now, Donalds enjoys an overwhelming financial advantage."

The shift matters because Cook's ratings are closely watched as shorthand for where a race sits on the spectrum from safe to competitive, and a move out of the top tier can influence how campaigns, donors and outside groups decide where to spend their time and money. In Florida, where statewide races can draw national attention and large sums, that kind of reclassification can also signal that a contest is being treated less as a foregone conclusion and more as one that will require active campaigning.

Jolly told reporters recently that he needs "resources to reach the mark, … that this is a cycle where you can get outspent 10:1 and still win." He predicted that money would "come in" as President Donald Trump's poor polling and a sluggish economy continued to push voters away from Republicans.

Jolly represented Florida's 13th congressional district in the U.S. House from 2014 to 2017 as a Republican. After leaving office, he became a prominent Republican critic of Trump and later switched his party registration to run for governor as a Democrat, saying much of the switch stemmed from what he described as the Republican Party's cultlike devotion to Trump.

A poll released by the Democratic Governors Association, conducted by Hart Research, showed a statistical tie in the race, with Jolly at 46 percent and Donalds at 45 percent. Other polls reported by Florida news outlets have shown Donalds leading by at least five percentage points.