While a “blue tsunami” swept Democrats into office across much of the country on election day, the wave broke in Florida. Voters there kept Republicans in statewide offices and approved Amendment 3, a sweeping cut to their property tax bills that critics warn could strip funding from police departments, fire stations and emergency medical services in the state’s smallest communities.

Amendment 3 expands Florida’s so-called homestead exemption, shielding more of a home’s assessed value from taxation. The exemption will nearly triple from $51,400 currently to $150,000 in 2027, then rise again to $250,000 in 2028. The measure also lowers the cap on annual assessments for rental and commercial properties from a 10% hike to 5%. The two-step phase-in means the full revenue loss will not land until the exemption reaches its final level in 2028.

The amendment does not apply to school-related property taxes, but it creates a path toward abolishing all non-school property taxes completely.

State economists project that local governments will lose nearly $5 billion in the first year, and nearly $12 billion a year once the exemption is fully phased in. Although Amendment 3 requires that remaining tax revenue go toward public safety and other local services, it does not mandate that police, fire and emergency medical services be funded first, nor does it guarantee them a minimum level of funding.

Supporters argued that smaller property tax bills would deliver relief as higher inflation worsens the cost of living. But sheriffs, police chiefs, fire chiefs and local government officials came out against the plan as they brace for a steep hit to their budgets.

Local governments can raise revenue in other ways, such as sales taxes and fees. Those sources, however, can crash in bad economic times and are unlikely to completely offset the losses from Amendment 3.

“In the end, though, essential services would still almost certainly be affected,” University of Tampa economists Abigail Hall and Aaron Wood wrote in the Conversation. “Funding for police, fire and emergency medical services is primarily the responsibility of local governments, and, for most counties, they make up the largest line item in their annual expenditures. Reducing property taxes would amount to a direct hit, especially in smaller, less-populated counties.”

Leading up to election day, Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri estimated that the county’s general fund could lose about $180 million in the first year after the measure passes. He added that the sheriff’s office accounts for half of the county’s spending, which mostly covers personnel costs. That means the county could have fewer deputies available to respond to calls, with community policing programs, marine patrols and K-9 units also facing cuts, he warned. In addition, the county’s emergency medical services fund could suffer a $20 million reduction.

“I think there’s no doubt — zero — that there has to be position cuts,” Gualtieri told WLRN last month.

Outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who backed Amendment 3, dismissed such warnings as “fearmongering” and suggested state grants could offset any budget shortfalls for local agencies. Florida Realtors, another backer, insisted the measure could be implemented without compromising essential services.

Still, some details are lacking, and a special session of the legislature could be called to spell out exactly how the amendment will work. How lawmakers fill in those details — including whether fiscally constrained counties receive any reimbursement, which the amendment itself does not spell out — will shape how the cuts land across Florida’s cities and counties.

Jeff Brandes, a former Republican state senator and president of the Florida Policy Project, wrote in an op-ed for Florida Politics on Friday that grants cannot fill recurring revenue shortfalls. And unlike big cities like Miami, which can hike hotel taxes and lean on other tourism-related sources, small inland towns have fewer options to generate tax revenue.

Brandes pointed to research from the Florida League of Cities, which found that at least 90% of homestead values will no longer be taxable in 108 of Florida’s 411 cities. In 33 counties, at least seven in 10 homesteads fall below the $250,000 exemption limit.

“The amendment itself sends no reimbursement to fiscally constrained counties, the poorest and most rural places with the least room to absorb a loss, and nothing in the amendment guarantees that police and fire will be protected,” Brandes said. “That is how rural Florida slides into rural dark ages: slower emergency response, crumbling roads, shorter library hours, shuttered recreation programs. Fewer services discourage investment. Less investment thins the tax base. A thinner tax base means fewer services. The dark ages won’t arrive all at once. They’ll arrive one closed fire station at a time.”

Because fire departments could see drastic cuts, Florida homeowners may end up paying higher insurance bills, offsetting the savings from their property taxes. Insurance Services Office, a private insurance-data company, evaluates local fire protection and assigns ratings that insurers can use in underwriting.

“A reduction in fire protection services in a community can lead to a lower ISO rating,” a spokesman for the Insurance Information Institute told Bloomberg. “The ISO rating is among numerous risk factors property insurers use to underwrite homes in Florida and could potentially cause premiums to increase if the rating is downgraded.”

Amendment 3’s effects could also extend to the state’s broader economy. In a pre-election analysis, the Tax Foundation described the measure as not just a tax cut, but a fundamental restructuring of local government finance. Since Florida does not have a state income tax, property taxes are a reliable source of revenue even in economic downturns, and they reduce the need for higher taxes on labor, entrepreneurship, capital formation and consumer spending, the think tank said.

“The elimination of a substantial portion of the property tax base does not eliminate the cost of local government services,” the Tax Foundation pointed out. “Amendment 3 would create highly distortive tax shifts, change who pays, and change how those costs are distributed. The result would be economically harmful both to Florida communities and the state overall.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.