Bitcoin (BTC) is showing strong indications that its latest long-term floor may already be in place, according to a classic trading indicator highlighted by a prominent on-chain analyst.

Key points:

• In August, the Fisher Transform indicator produced a monthly bullish crossover for only the fourth time in Bitcoin's history, according to analyst Willy Woo.
• Previous monthly crossovers accompanied the end of Bitcoin bear markets, including in late 2022, when the indicator reached -3.83.
• A bullish divergence has continued to develop on weekly time frames, echoing the closing phase of the 2022 BTC price downtrend.

Analyst points to evidence of a clean BTC price reversal

In an X thread on Friday, analyst Willy Woo — known for on-chain Bitcoin analysis and for popularizing network metrics such as the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio — flagged key readings from the Fisher Transform, a price trend analysis tool introduced by trader John Ehlers in 2002. The indicator smooths an asset's price action to produce a readable trend-strength chart. Because market prices tend to spend more time around extreme values than ordinary statistical data, the Fisher transform corrects for this by applying a log-based transform.

The indicator is built from two trend lines — the Fisher line and the trigger line — that fluctuate on a scale with zero at its center. The trigger line is derived from the Fisher line and plotted with a delay of one period. Because each monthly reading spans weeks of price action, signals on this time frame are generally treated as gauges of multi-year trends rather than short-term timing tools.

According to Woo, a sharp upward reversal in Fisher, in which its two trend lines cross over one another, has corresponded to bear-market bottoms when viewed on monthly time frames.

"BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out. Latest cross is the 4th on record," he commented.

The cross in question occurred during at -2.26, based on monthly BTC/USD chart data from TradingView. If it continues to play out, history suggests BTC/USD would embark on a new macro uptrend. Woo noted, however, that price could still consolidate and move lower, citing a corresponding phenomenon during bull markets, in which Fisher delivered a bearish crossover only to produce a fresh bullish one later.

He attributes this to the presence of speculative traders during long-term BTC price uptrends; because these participants are sensitive to short-term price moves, they influence market momentum. During bear-market bottom phases, by contrast, such traders are largely absent, which improves the reliability of Fisher bottom signals.

"When price falls to a point where investors find value, buy-pressure fires back up but we are devoid of speculators. Price reverses more cleanly without the choppy fake outs seen in tops. Hence bottoms are easier to define. This is seen in many signals, also seen in the Fisher Transform here," he added.

Fisher bullish divergence tracks the 2022 bear market

The weekly chart shows another Fisher bull structure in progress throughout 2026. The indicator hit its swing low of -2.85 at the end of December last year, when BTC/USD was still trading around $90,000, according to TradingView data.

Since then, Fisher has printed a succession of higher lows while price itself has made lower lows, creating a bullish divergence — a pattern generally read as downside momentum weakening even as price continues to fall. The same pattern emerged in 2022, when a bullish divergence in Fisher accompanied the final six months of Bitcoin's previous bear market.

Despite a range of onchain metrics triggering bear-market reversal signals in recent months, doubts remain over whether Bitcoin's 21-month lows near $57,000 on July 1 actually marked a new cycle bottom. Last week, Woo himself noted a lack of typical buyer interest at those lows, with bid-side activity suggesting that only a handful of large-volume investors were accumulating at the time. Against that backdrop, the Fisher readings add a further data to the bottom debate, with upcoming weekly prints showing whether Fisher continues to form higher lows against lower price lows, as it did in the closing phase of the 2022 bear market.