Fidelity Investments Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer believes Bitcoin may be entering a new four-year bull market, saying the cryptocurrency's power-law patterns point to a fresh cycle now that it has held the $60,000 level. In comments shared on Friday, Timmer set a $300,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2029, even as the asset trades near $84,000.

Timmer Outlines $300,000 Target for 2029

Timmer laid out his assessment in a post on X, writing that Bitcoin's power-law model suggested a new cyclical bull market was underway. He identified $60,000 as the level Bitcoin needed to hold before the potential cycle could begin, labeling it the "line in the sand." Power-law models, which trace an asset's price along a logarithmic curve over time, are a widely used framework for mapping Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. Timmer applying that framework from his post at Fidelity, one of the world's largest asset managers, offers a read on how Bitcoin is being absorbed into mainstream macro research rather than remaining the province of crypto-native analysts.

A move to $300,000 would put Bitcoin more than 3.5 times above its current price of roughly $84,000. It would also carry the cryptocurrency beyond its previous all-time high of $126,198, reached in 2025. Four-year cycles have been a recurring feature of Bitcoin's history, a pattern many analysts attribute to the asset's halving schedule, which cuts the rate of new supply roughly in half every four years.

Notably, Timmer's latest position marks a shift from his remarks in August, when he said Bitcoin had held the floor of its power-law curve and argued that the correction had lasted long to satisfy the requirements of a mild four-year market downturn. At the time, however, he stopped short of calling a new bull market or offering a price target.

Chart Tracks $60,000 Support and Bitcoin's Ratio to Gold

The chart underpinning Timmer's view plots Bitcoin's price against a power-law trend line and a lower support line, using weekly data from Fidelity, Bloomberg and Haver Analytics. It designates $60,000 as the critical threshold and showed that level at $81,218 on September 20 — above the designated mark. Bitcoin did not break below that support during its recent decline.

The chart also tracks Bitcoin's performance relative to gold. That ratio has recovered to positive 6% after falling to approximately negative 100%. According to the chart, previous cycle bottoms registered negative 120%, negative 118% and negative 102%, and each trough preceded another cycle. Measuring Bitcoin against gold is a common benchmarking method, since it captures how the asset performs relative to the market's traditional store of value.

Bitwise Notes Institutional Interest in Bitcoin and Gold

Separately, crypto asset manager Bitwise said in a Wednesday report that some institutions increasingly view Bitcoin and gold through the same macroeconomic investment strategy, with concerns about fiat currency debasement fueling interest in both assets. Within that framework, some institutions treat the two assets as interchangeable, and certain endowments have built positions in both. Timmer's choice to chart Bitcoin's relative performance against gold places his analysis squarely in the same store-of-value comparison running through the institutional debate Bitwise describes.

Bitwise noted that opinion remains divided. Some institutions reject the "digital gold" narrative and instead regard cryptocurrency as a disruptive technology.

The discussion comes as other on-chain indicators reach levels last seen near the previous bear market bottom. Taken together, the $60,000 support Timmer called the "line in the sand," the direction of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, and the on-chain readings echoing prior cycle bottoms frame the data points against which the proposed new cycle will be judged.

Source: Cryptofrontnews