Bitcoin may be rallying, but that does not mean the bear market is over — not yet, anyway, according to a new report from asset manager Fidelity, one of the largest traditional finance firms to have embraced digital assets through its Fidelity Digital Assets arm.

The report said that while bitcoin has been behaving much as it did in previous cycles, the cryptocurrency could still hit a bottom in November. Bitcoin's price history has been marked by repeated boom-and-bust cycles, but the timing of past peaks and troughs has varied considerably, which is central to Fidelity's caution.

Bitcoin began rallying in mid-August after the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. The asset's price recently stood at close to $81,639, up nearly 30% over a 30-day period.

Some observers have since argued that bitcoin is out of its bear market. The coin touched a record high in October last year, hitting $126,080.

"Given bitcoin's recent performance, the bottom could already have occurred in July," Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, wrote in the report.

"It could also drop again to make another new low in November or later," he continued, adding that bitcoin cycles have historically not been precisely four years long, so they "aren't reliable for timing the market."

Throughout most of June and July, bitcoin's volatility was particularly muted, and the coin traded below $65,000. That changed in August following the Treasury Department's announcement, which has brought the so-called debasement trade back into the picture — a strategy in which investors buy hard assets like bitcoin and gold as a hedge against the erosion of fiat currency value amid expanding government debt and deficits.

To gauge where bitcoin moves next, Kuiper argued that investors should pay attention to what happens with the crypto Clarity Act. Proponents argue the bill could provide "greater regulatory certainty and support continued innovation in the U.S. digital asset ecosystem," he wrote.

President Donald Trump in August urged lawmakers to get the long-awaited crypto market structure bill over the line, helping spur bitcoin's run. After meeting with crypto industry leaders at the White House, the president called the draft "very, very powerful."

The digital asset industry has long called for clear rules on how regulators should treat bitcoin, stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies, arguing that regulatory ambiguity has deterred institutional participation. Lawmakers are set to vote on the bill this month.

The report was published by Fidelity Digital Assets; the original article by Mathew Di Salvo first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine.