Fidelity's director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, has set a Bitcoin price target of $300,000 by 2029, outlined in a post accompanying his power-law chart on X (https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2103683225835213069). Its mathematics, he wrote, suggests "a new cyclical bull market is underway after holding $60k, targeting $300k in 2029."

Bitcoin traded near $85,000 at the time of writing — 08:00 UTC on October 4, 2026 — according to CoinMarketCap (). From that level, the $300,000 objective implies upside of approximately 253%, equivalent to about 3.53 times the starting price. The figure reflects Timmer's model-based outlook: it does not establish an official firm-wide Fidelity target, and the post assigns no probability to the level being reached. That distinction holds even though his employer, Fidelity Investments, ranks among the world's largest asset managers and has offered a US spot Bitcoin ETF since January 2024.

How the Historical Curve Leads to a Future Target

Timmer's power-law framework fits a relationship between Bitcoin's price and time, then projects that relationship forward. In a power-law relationship, one quantity scales as a fixed power of another — a structure analysts have applied to Bitcoin's price history for years. The approach gives him a way to compare successive cycles against a longer-term growth path, even though their dollar values differ dramatically.

A logarithmic price scale makes that comparison possible: a tenfold increase occupies the same vertical distance whether Bitcoin rises from $1,000 to $10,000 or from $10,000 to $100,000. On the chart, black price line shows the actual weekly observations, a turquoise curve represents the fitted trend, and an orange curve marks a lower support boundary. Together, these curves are Timmer's reference for judging where Bitcoin sits within its own history.

The chart ends on September 20, 2026, with a final price label of $81,218, so it should be read separately from the $84,500 baseline used earlier in the analysis.

The $60,000 Threshold Connects His Earlier and Latest Views

During Fidelity's earlier Q1 review and Q2 outlook (), Timmer described Bitcoin as being in an accumulation or price-discovery phase and said a strong break below $60,000 would concern him, because it could suggest that the established growth relationship was changing. His later post interprets the recovery that followed once that area held as the start of another bullish cycle.

The chart labels a recent weekly low at $64,165 and an orange support-curve point at $51,820. Those annotations distinguish the observed price from the model's lower boundary, while Timmer's roughly $60,000 threshold stands as his separate reference for assessing the cycle. Keeping those distinctions clear matters when judging a setback: a brief fluctuation around his threshold is different from the sustained breakdown he previously described as concerning. The orange curve also changes over time, so its labeled value should not be treated as a fixed trading floor.

Gold Provides a Second Comparison, Not a Second Source of Demand

A magenta indicator tracking Bitcoin's position against gold has moved above zero, with its latest label at 6% after a trough near -100%. The recovery shows Bitcoin's position against gold improving relative to the indicator's recent history, adding support to Timmer's interpretation of a changing cycle. A similar relative-performance question appears in Cathie Wood's Bitcoin-versus-gold argument.

The ratio can rise because Bitcoin gains, because gold falls, or because Bitcoin declines less than gold. It can therefore improve even while a Bitcoin holder loses money in dollar terms — one reason relative strength is useful but incomplete evidence for a dollar-price target. Timmer's model and his gold comparison both draw on market prices; their agreement does not identify new buyers or demonstrate that investors have sold gold to purchase Bitcoin.

The Target Needs Evidence Beyond a Fitted Curve

The key assumption is that Bitcoin's historical growth relationship remains relevant through 2029. Timmer acknowledged in the earlier Fidelity discussion that such patterns can end when the underlying technology is disrupted. Extending the curve is therefore conditional on that relationship continuing to hold, rather than a statement of what the market must deliver.

That makes observed demand important alongside the model. Persistent net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs could help assess buying through one channel, while evidence of broader adoption could show demand expanding elsewhere. ETF flows alone would not identify every buyer, establish their motives, or capture purchases outside those funds.

A sustained loss of the recovery zone would challenge Timmer's new-cycle reading. Conversely, buyers continuing to support Bitcoin through subsequent setbacks would give the thesis more substance. Those developments would help readers assess whether the market is following his proposed path well before 2029 arrives.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Price targets are uncertain, and historical market relationships may change.

This article originally appeared on Coindoo as Bitcoin Price Target: Fidelity Analyst Sees $300K by 2029 (https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-price-target-fidelity-analyst/).