Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has a “50-50 chance” of switching to the Republican Party “before the end of the year,” according to elections expert Chaz Nuttycombe. Nuttycombe’s assessment follows an NBC News report saying the senior senator “is growing increasingly frustrated with the Democratic Party,” a sign that the speculation is now being driven less by social media chatter and more by a steady stream of public comments and reporting around Fetterman’s own complaints.

According to the NBC report, Fetterman said he is “not there” when it comes to changing party affiliation, but his previously stated concerns about the Democratic Party’s stance toward Israel remain a “red line.” NBC News reported that “two weeks ago, Fetterman opened the door to leaving the Democratic Party if it ‘officially’ becomes anti-Israel.” That keeps the focus on one of the clearest issues animating the story: Fetterman is not describing a broad ideological conversion so much as signaling that specific policy and party-culture grievances could shape his future alignment.

Fetterman also told NBC News that he was not “even” invited to two sessions convened by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) that outlined Democratic opposition to President Donald Trump’s “election doomsday scenarios,” as MS NOW reported. Schumer said last week on MS NOW, “These so-called tabletop exercises teach us is when you’re prepared in advance, you can stop a lot of bad, bad things from happening. A lot of the stealing that Trump will do, but if you just wait for them to do it and then try to react that day? Not good.”

“My caucus didn’t even invite me,” Fetterman said of the meetings. “I didn’t even know they were doing some doomsday kinds of voting situation. Well, hey, I lived through that in Pennsylvania in 2020. They didn’t even tell me that’s even happening. So if the Democratic caucus doesn’t want me, they could just let me know.”

“If they don’t even include me in kinds of basic things and I have to read about it, I mean, that’s kind of strange as a committed Democrat,” he added.

As NBC News reported, while Fetterman has been voicing grievances about the Democratic Party, Republican leaders have been openly courting the Pennsylvania senator. Last week, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) described Fetterman and other moderate Democrats as “people without a home,” and said Republicans “would certainly welcome” his switch to their side. Fetterman later told reporters that he and Thune “‘haven’t had a conversation’ about a party switch.”

Still, political observers see signs that Fetterman is no longer strategically aligned with the Democratic Party. Reporter Sahil Kapur, who co-authored the NBC News report, wrote on X Monday that “a lot of IFs” remain about Fetterman’s plans, but said a switch could return Senate control to Republicans if Democrats succeed in the midterms.

“Fetterman’s term expires in January 2029,” Kapur wrote. “Non-zero chance Dems pull off an upset this fall and flip four seats to win a 51-49 majority. A Fetterman defection could hand control of the Senate right back to Republicans.”

“The ugly truth is that Dems really need to win 52 Senate seats in November to have a real majority,” one data analyst wrote on X. “Fetterman cannot be trusted. This probably requires flipping Texas, Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. Very high bar.”