Bitcoin and gold fell on November 10, 2026, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he supports raising interest rates at the Fed's December meeting. His comments drove market-implied odds of a December rate increase to their highest level in months and contributed to a move away from riskier assets and toward the U.S. dollar.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of a rate hike rose from 76.3% to 96.3% after Waller's speech. The figure reflects futures-market expectations rather than a confirmed Federal Reserve decision. Policymakers will make the final determination at the December 8-9 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the committee responsible for setting the target range for the Fed's benchmark interest rate.

Bitcoin fell toward $74,000, while gold dropped below $4,100 per ounce. Both assets can face pressure when higher interest rates become more likely because cash and government bonds offer relatively more attractive returns. Neither bitcoin nor gold pays interest or dividends.

Waller backs a 25 basis point increase

Waller delivered his remarks in London on November 10. Public speeches by sitting Fed governors are closely watched by traders for signals about the direction of monetary policy, particularly in the weeks before a scheduled FOMC meeting. He said September inflation data had provided no positive signals. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.5% month over month and 3.7% year over year in September, according to CoinTelegraph's reporting on the speech. For reference, the Federal Reserve's stated longer-run goal is 2% inflation, meaning September's annual reading remained well above the level policymakers aim for.

Waller said:

“While I am hoping for an improvement over September, even if this occurs, I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC's policy rate at our December meeting.”

He added:

“However, if inflation comes in substantially higher than I expect, more robust action by the FOMC may be called for.”

— Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve Governor, November 10, 2026

Waller indicated that a 50 basis point increase “should be considered” if the October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading is 0.3% month over month or higher, according to Crypto Briefing. That leaves the December meeting with two possible rate outcomes: a 25 basis point increase, which futures markets are pricing as highly likely, and a larger 50 basis point move if the upcoming inflation data is materially higher than expected.

A 25 basis point increase — equivalent to 0.25 percentage points — would move the Fed's benchmark interest-rate range from 3.75%-4.00% to 4.00%-4.25%. Higher rates increase the return available from cash and government bonds, which can reduce the relative appeal of non-yielding assets such as bitcoin and gold. A similar repricing earlier this year coincided with a $3,000 decline in bitcoin as expectations for a Fed hike increased.

Bitcoin, gold and broader markets react

Bitstamp data showed bitcoin reaching $74,080 earlier in the session, down 1.3% on the day, according to CoinTelegraph's reporting. Gold fell more than 1% to below $4,100 per ounce, according to Bloomingbit.

When interest rates rise, bonds and savings accounts can become more attractive relative to assets that do not generate interest or dividends. Investors may therefore reduce exposure to metals and cryptoassets during periods when monetary policy is expected to become tighter. Rate expectations can also spill into currency markets, since higher expected U.S. yields tend to increase the appeal of dollar-denominated assets for global investors.

The pressure extended beyond crypto and precious metals. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4% on the day, according to CoinTelegraph, indicating that the market move also affected growth-oriented equities and other assets sensitive to borrowing costs.

Bitcoin has held its ground during some previous rate-hike scares, although the results have varied according to the size of the eventual policy move and broader macroeconomic conditions. At current market-implied odds, traders are treating a 25 basis point increase at the December meeting as highly likely. The main uncertainty is whether the October CPI data, which is due before the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, could lead Waller and other policymakers to consider a 50 basis point increase.

The October inflation release and the Fed's December meeting statement are therefore the next major scheduled developments for markets monitoring the outlook for interest rates. The Federal Reserve has not issued an official decision on the December rate, and the 96.3% probability shown by the CME FedWatch Tool represents futures-market pricing rather than a formal announcement.

For additional context, CoinLineup has reported on bitcoin moving back above $77,500 as XRP led major tokens during a period of lower Fed hike odds, as well as a previous episode in which bitcoin fell $3,000 as rate-hike expectations increased. The publication has also covered bitcoin reclaiming $80,000 after an earlier Fed rate increase and the relationship between Treasury-market dynamics and Fed hike expectations.

Source: CoinLineup

Editorial information

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