US Stocks: Wall Street divided on Fed as rising crude prices lift rate-hike bets
Key Takeaways
- •Most brokerages still expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting.
- •Some market participants now see a greater risk that the Fed could deliver an unexpected rate hike.
- •Rising oil prices have weakened the inflation outlook and made the next policy decision more difficult to forecast.
- •Renewed geopolitical tensions have added to concerns that inflation may remain elevated for longer than expected.
- •Market pricing has increased the probability of a July rate hike as investors assess the Fed's next move.
The US Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting has become more difficult to forecast as surging oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions increase the risk of persistent inflation. While most brokerages still expect interest rates to remain unchanged, some now see a greater possibility of an unexpected hike, and markets have sharply raised the odds of a policy move.
Oil's latest rally has clouded the inflation outlook and complicated expectations for the Fed's next decision. The combination of higher crude prices and geopolitical uncertainty has strengthened concerns that inflation may remain elevated for longer than previously expected, keeping attention on how the central bank weighs price stability against signs of cooling activity.
As on 28 Jul 2026, 01:30 AM IST, US markets were closely watching the debate over whether the Fed would keep rates steady or respond to the changing inflation backdrop. The discussion has also divided brokerages, with some continuing to argue that the central bank will hold while others point to the growing risk of a surprise increase.
The article also noted that markets have increased the odds of a July rate hike, reflecting the stronger focus on credibility versus economic data as investors assess the Fed's next move.
US Markets
S&P 500 Top Gainers
S&P 500 Top Losers
Oil rally clouds inflation outlook
Brokerages divided on Fed's next move
Live Events
Credibility versus economic data
Markets increase odds of July rate hike
(What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news , stock tips , Budget 2025 , Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice , on ETMarkets . Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .)
Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today .
Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price , Axis Bank Share Price , HDFC Bank Share Price , Infosys Share Price , Wipro Share Price , NTPC Share Price
(What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news , stock tips , Budget 2025 , Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice , on ETMarkets . Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .)
Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today .
Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price , Axis Bank Share Price , HDFC Bank Share Price , Infosys Share Price , Wipro Share Price , NTPC Share Price
Silver now needs a gate pass, not just a toll. Will it impact demand?
In a first, Airbus set to source Indian titanium for its planes
Who did India’s ethanol boom actually benefit?
Is Bitcoin finally becoming digital gold equivalent?
Backed by Flipkart, Cleartrip plans to narrow the gap with MakeMyTrip
As Cult.fit prepares for IPO, questions on balance sheet health weigh