NewsMacroFed’s Daly and Musalem Push Back on Credibility Concerns as Bond Selloff Persists

Fed’s Daly and Musalem Push Back on Credibility Concerns as Bond Selloff Persists

Author: Investinglive·

Key Takeaways

  • Mary Daly said current Treasury market pricing suggests monetary policy is appropriately positioned and she sees no urgent need for a pre-emptive rate move in either direction.
  • Alberto Musalem views underlying inflation of 2.5% to 3% as too high, considers current policy settings neutral to accommodative, and argued raising rates now could prevent more aggressive action later.
  • Musalem attributed the pressure on yields to competition for capital between government borrowing and artificial intelligence buildout financing rather than doubts about Fed credibility, and said inflation expectations remain anchored.
  • Traders' implied probability of a September rate increase has fallen to roughly 30% from more than 70% at the end of July.
  • The 30-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2007 after most of the decline triggered by the Treasury Department's increased buyback announcement reversed on Thursday.
Fed’s Daly and Musalem Push Back on Credibility Concerns as Bond Selloff Persists

Two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday pushed back against rising chatter that the central bank’s inflation-fighting credibility is under threat, even as they expressed different views on how urgently policy should respond to the latest market moves.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem discussed the recent bond market selloff in separate television interviews, with Daly speaking to Bloomberg and Musalem to CNBC.

The remarks come as traders sharply pared bets on a September rate increase. Pricing has fallen to about 30% from more than 70% at the end of July, underscoring how quickly expectations have shifted as officials continue to weigh incoming data against still-elevated longer-term borrowing costs.

Daly said current Treasury market pricing suggests monetary policy is appropriately positioned, and she does not see the Fed’s credibility at risk. She said she has heard plenty of discussion about whether the central bank should make a preemptive move, in either direction, but does not see evidence that doing so is an urgent problem to solve.

Daly, who does not vote on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, has previously backed holding rates steady, though she has cautioned that the risk of inflation becoming broader and more persistent is increasing. She noted that recent data, including moderating inflation readings in June and July, weaker retail sales, and an unexpected decline in employment, have eased pressure on the Fed to raise rates soon.

Musalem took a more cautious view on the inflation outlook while agreeing that credibility is not the explanation for the selloff. He said he remains undecided on what to recommend at the September meeting and prefers to keep an open mind heading into every gathering, but he still sees a higher probability that inflation remains above target.

He said underlying inflation is running between 2.5% and 3%, which he described as too high and needing to come down. Musalem also said current policy settings are neutral to accommodative rather than restrictive. He argued that raising rates now could prevent the need for more aggressive action later.

Musalem, who supported a rate increase in July and does not vote this year, said he would have preferred to lift rates at that meeting. He added that the pressure on yields is more likely tied to competition for capital between government borrowing and the financing needs of the artificial intelligence buildout, both in the United States and globally, rather than any doubt about Fed credibility. He said inflation expectations remain anchored.

Three policymakers dissented in favor of a rate increase at the July meeting, when the Fed held rates steady for a fifth consecutive gathering, a reminder that debate inside the central bank has already broadened as officials balance inflation progress against the risk of tightening too far.

The Treasury Department’s announcement on Wednesday of increased buybacks in longer-dated debt briefly pushed yields lower, but most of that move reversed on Thursday. The 30-year yield rose to its highest level since 2007.

Traders now assign roughly a 30% probability to a September rate increase, sharply down from more than 70% at the end of July.