The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, but the decision barely registered with equity traders, who quickly shifted their attention back to corporate earnings season and a renewed rally in artificial intelligence stocks.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 on October 28, 2026, to keep the federal funds rate — the benchmark rate that influences borrowing costs across the economy — in a range of 3.75% to 4%. The committee cited elevated inflation and said it wants more economic data before making further adjustments. Two officials dissented in favor of a rate increase — a hawkish undertone that markets largely looked past.

For investors, the more consequential numbers this week may come from quarterly reports rather than from the Fed. S&P 500 earnings growth is projected at roughly 25% year over year for the third quarter, driven largely by spending on AI infrastructure.

A hold, with a hawkish undertone

Policymakers described a strong economic expansion, resilient domestic spending, and robust capital investment, while repeating their commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target.

The dissents drew the most attention. Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack both voted against the decision, each preferring a 25-basis-point rate increase — a quarter of a percentage point. The disagreement inside the room was therefore not about when to cut rates, but whether to hike them. The meeting also marked Cook's first dissenting vote.

Chairman Kevin Warsh struck a balanced tone at his post-meeting press conference. He acknowledged strong productivity and capital investment, but stressed that the Fed needs to keep monitoring inflation and incoming data to guide its next policy moves.

Markets change the channel

Stocks did not treat the decision as a major event. US indices posted modest gains after the announcement, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way. Much of that strength came from renewed momentum in AI-related names.

Two developments drove the enthusiasm: Anthropic's filing for an initial public offering, and financing deals involving several chip suppliers. An IPO filing is an early procedural step rather than a market debut — valuation, pricing, and listing timing are typically settled in later stages of the process — which is why the financial detail contained in the filing itself is drawing attention from investors who follow the sector.

Earnings season added to the upbeat picture. S&P 500 earnings growth is projected at around 25% year over year for the third quarter, with some estimates in a range of approximately 25% to 27%. Much of that growth is credited to AI infrastructure spending by the largest technology companies. If the projections hold, it would mark the third consecutive quarter of growth above 25%.

What this means for investors

The central question is whether earnings can keep doing the heavy lifting. A rate held at 3.75% to 4% is not cheap money, so equity valuations depend heavily on profit growth rather than falling borrowing costs. Projected growth of around 25% gives the bulls a solid argument, but it also sets a high bar.

The two dissents may be the risk most likely to be underestimated. Both Cook and Hammack wanted a hike, not a cut. If inflation stays sticky and more officials join them, the conversation could move toward tightening. Warsh's emphasis on watching the data keeps that door open rather than closing it.

There is also a concentration question. The AI rebound is being driven by a relatively narrow set of catalysts: hyperscaler spending, chip supplier financing, and a high-profile IPO filing. Investors tracking the Anthropic filing will want to see how public markets value an AI developer once detailed financials are in the open.

Key items to watch include capital spending guidance from the largest tech firms, demand signals from chip suppliers, and the next round of inflation data. The last of those could determine whether the hawkish minority on the FOMC remains a minority.

This article is based on reporting by CryptoBriefing, edited by Diego Almada Lopez. Original article: Wall Street moves past the Fed pause and back to tech earnings and AI.