Fed Chair Kevin Warsh leads two-day meeting as markets brace for rate decision

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Kevin Warsh is leading only his second meeting as Federal Reserve Chair, and this one is shaping up to be far less predictable than his first.

The Federal Open Market Committee's two-day July meeting began Tuesday and will conclude Wednesday, July 29, with an interest rate decision followed by a press conference.

Unlike Warsh's first meeting in June, when the Fed's decision to hold rates steady was widely expected, markets are now split on what the central bank will do next. That matters because Fed guidance helps shape borrowing costs and risk appetite across markets, including crypto, where traders often react quickly to any surprise in policy tone as well as the decision itself.

Related: Bitcoin traders brace for Fed's rate call and inflation this week

Why the decision is uncertain

Two conflicting forces are pulling the Fed in opposite directions. June's inflation report showed prices easing to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, giving the central bank room to keep rates unchanged.

At the same time, renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with the breakdown of an earlier ceasefire, have pushed oil prices higher again. That has revived concerns that higher energy costs could feed broader inflation and pressure the Fed toward a hike instead.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a 70.6% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in the 350 to 375 basis point range, versus a 29.4% probability of a 25 basis point hike.

Those odds have shifted only modestly over the past month. A month ago, the market assigned a 70.1% probability to a hold and a 29.9% probability to a hike, underscoring how persistent the uncertainty has been.

Warsh is running the Fed differently

Although this is only his second meeting as chair, Warsh has already begun changing how the Fed operates. He has indicated that he intends to provide significantly less forward guidance than his predecessors, a shift that has unsettled parts of the market that had grown accustomed to clearer signals ahead of rate decisions.

He has also established several new task forces to examine possible changes to how the Fed conducts its business going forward.

Data from Santiment Intelligence, an on-chain intelligence platform that also tracks social sentiment across crypto, shows how directly that uncertainty is showing up in trader conversation.

According to a July 28 post from Santiment on X:

"The July FOMC meeting runs July 28-29, with Kevin Warsh leading a crucial interest rate decision that will impact crypto markets. Traders are focused on whether the Fed holds steady again or surprises traders with a hike."

Santiment's data tracks crypto social chatter around three possible outcomes: rate hikes, rate cuts, and rates staying the same.

Its chart shows conversation around a hike spiking sharply on June 16, just ahead of Warsh's first FOMC meeting as chair, along with a smaller increase in discussion about possible rate cuts that same day. The Fed ultimately held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17.

Discussion then shifted toward the "rates staying the same" camp on June 23, after that meeting, before hike-related chatter began climbing again by July 13. As of July 28, that conversation has translated into market pricing, with traders now assigning a 36% to 38% chance of a surprise hike.

Santiment said that "crowd conviction can get loud right before it gets wrong, especially when traders are trying to price Fed uncertainty into Bitcoin," a reminder of how quickly hike fears surged and then reversed around the June meeting. Banks broadly still expect a hold this time as well, since inflation pressure is not yet seen as decisive enough to justify a hike.

Crypto markets are already reacting

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are showing signs of caution ahead of Wednesday's decision.

The total crypto market capitalization has fallen roughly 3% to $2.18 trillion, while Bitcoin recently slipped to about $63,763.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has declined to 34, reflecting growing fear among traders. Large-cap altcoins including Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin are all down between 3% and 5%.

Related: Fed's Kevin Warsh issues stark warning on 2008-style bailouts

This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jul. 28, 2026, where it first appeared in the Federal Reserve & FOMC News section.