Europe is grappling with its third energy crisis in four years, set against a backdrop of persistent global geopolitical instability. The continent's heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels has been exposed repeatedly as the European Union struggles to stabilize markets in the increasingly narrow intervals between oil shocks.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Europe relied on Russian producers for 40 percent of its natural gas supply. The ensuing turmoil sent European markets into chaos as the EU worked to impose and enforce sanctions on Russian energy exports, triggering what amounted to an economic war between Brussels and the Kremlin. Europe has yet to fully recover. It has since been battered by conflicts that disrupted Red Sea shipping lanes in 2023 and 2024, and now by the United States and Israel's military campaign in Iran. Compounding these geopolitical shocks, Europe is warming faster than any other continent on Earth, producing an unprecedented climate-driven energy crisis.

"We swore we'd learn. We promised things would change but here we are," a diplomat described as "highly frustrated" was anonymously quoted by the BBC in response to market turbulence triggered by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world's daily oil and gas trade flowed before U.S. and Israeli military operations commenced earlier this year.

"Instead of concentrating on much-needed long-term plans — about how to make Europe more competitive in this increasingly volatile world, [European] prime ministers and presidents are now in a panic over [energy] prices, worried about angry voters and scrambling for short-term solutions," the source continued. "Just like the crisis after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Different conflict. Same European divisions; same dilemmas over energy. We can't keep going round in these circles. Something's got to give."

A new report from the National Interest warns that Europe's next energy catastrophe will stem not from war or climate pressures, but from peak oil.

Europe has made meaningful progress in reducing its dependence on Russian fossil fuel imports over the past four years. The Kremlin no longer wields the same leverage over the EU. However, the bloc remains heavily dependent on foreign oil from numerous sources. According to official figures from the European Council, the European Union imported 435 million tonnes (Mt) of crude oil in 2025 alone, at a cost exceeding €212 billion. The EU's REPowerEU plan, launched in 2022 as a direct response to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, set ambitious targets to slash fossil fuel imports and accelerate renewable energy deployment, and the bloc has since raised its binding renewable energy target to 42.5 percent of the energy mix by 2030. Yet progress on the ground has been uneven across member states, and oil — which powers the vast majority of Europe's transport sector — remains the hardest fuel to substitute at scale.

If the EU fails to accelerate its transition away from fossil fuel imports and toward domestic clean energy development, it could be caught unprepared by terminal oil production decline, the report cautions. Many of the bloc's key supplier nations are already experiencing declining exports due to aging wells and finite reserves. The International Energy Agency has projected that global oil demand could plateau before the end of this decade, but the National Interest report's concern centers on the supply side: as exporting nations deplete their reserves, the pool of countries able to ramp up output during disruptions is steadily shrinking.

"Unlike wars or sanctions, terminal decline does not create an immediate supply shock. Instead, it gradually reduces the amount of oil available for export," the report states. "As more exporting countries pass their production peak, fewer producers will be able to increase output when markets tighten, or supply disruptions occur. For an import-dependent region such as the European Union, this means that diversification alone may become increasingly difficult over time."

The consequences of inaction could extend well beyond market disruption and energy poverty. Without energy autonomy, Europe could become acutely vulnerable to foreign aggression. Energy insecurity may ultimately pose a greater threat to European safety and freedom than any conventional weapon, if expert warnings continue to go unheeded.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com