Only a few notable option expiries stand out for the 13 August 10am New York cut.

The first cluster involves EUR/USD, with expiries layered between 1.1500 and 1.1550. This setup mirrors a dynamic seen over the past several sessions for the pair. Large option expiries near a strike price can sometimes act as a gravitational pull on spot pricing as the cut approaches, as dealers adjust delta hedges — a phenomenon often referred to as "pinning."

Downside movement is expected to remain limited, particularly now that the US CPI report has been released. The inflation figures came in relatively benign, offering little fresh impetus and doing little to shift market expectations around the Federal Reserve's rate path. Against that backdrop, the expiries — combined with reported bids near 1.1500 — could help establish a floor for any downward price extensions during the session ahead.

On the upside, the expiries at 1.1545–50 carry a large notional size, though their significance should not be overstated. They may contribute to constraining price action during European morning trade. However, the broader technical picture shows EUR/USD topside capped by the 100-day moving average at 1.1565. That level remains the key technical resistance to watch this week, with any upward extensions likely to be contained by it.

Dollar sentiment continues to serve as the primary driver this week. With the US CPI report offering no strong catalyst, traders are turning attention to US–Iran geopolitical developments and potential USD/JPY intervention dynamics as alternative market drivers.

Regarding USD/JPY, there is one expiry cluster at 159.00 worth noting. As has been the case previously, these expiries are unlikely to play a major role in price action. Intervention risk remains the dominant factor for the pair, with the 160 level widely seen as the ceiling and key threshold that could prompt another round of coordinated action by Tokyo and US officials. Japan's Ministry of Finance previously intervened when USD/JPY approached the 160 area in late April and early May 2024, and authorities have continued to signal readiness to act against excessive yen volatility.

Developments around USD/JPY carry the potential to reverberate across other dollar pairs as well, making it a key area to monitor. With the CPI data now behind them, market participants will also be watching for any shifts in Fed communications and upcoming US data releases for the next directional cue on the dollar.

For additional context on how to interpret this data, refer to the explanatory post here.