The euro and pound remain under pressure, drifting toward important support levels as the US dollar strengthens. The next moves in EUR/USD and GBP/USD will hinge on incoming macroeconomic releases, above all developments in the US labour market.

Today, traders will be watching economic data from both Europe and the United States. In the eurozone, services-sector business activity indices are due, and weaker readings could keep the euro under pressure. In the US, weekly labour-market figures will be published, and markets will also pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve representative Christopher Waller. Tomorrow's employment report, however, will be the key reference point for markets. Employment data is among the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inputs alongside inflation, because the central bank's dual mandate covers both price stability and maximum employment, so shifts in labour-market momentum feed directly into rate expectations. After the weak ADP reading, further signs of a cooling labour market could strengthen expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy and weigh on the dollar, while stronger figures could support continued dollar gains.

For the pound, domestic data and signals from the Bank of England will offer an additional point of reference. Services-sector business activity figures will be in focus, along with a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, whose comments could shape expectations for the central bank's future policy. The services sector carries particular weight in the UK economy, which makes its activity readings a meaningful input for monetary policy expectations.

EUR/USD

As expected, EUR/USD has tested the important 1.1580–1.1620 support area. The decline has so far slowed near the upper boundary of the 1.1520–1.1560 range that formed in August. Weak eurozone data could push EUR/USD deeper into this range. A return above 1.1620, followed by a sustained break above that level, would weaken the current bearish scenario and open the way for a corrective recovery.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 10:15 (GMT+3): Spain Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
• today at 10:55 (GMT+3): Germany Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD continues to play out the bearish "tower" pattern described previously. A sustained move below the important 1.3500 support level keeps the risk of further declines toward the 1.3400–1.3440 area. A rebound from that zone could trigger a corrective recovery, while the bearish scenario could be considered invalidated after a sustained move above 1.3560.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• today at 11:30 (GMT+3): UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
• today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index;
• tomorrow at 11:50 (GMT+3): speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

Overall, EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain in a downtrend near important support levels, though their further direction will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. Following the weak ADP report, tomorrow's US employment report will be the key reference point. Further signs of labour market cooling could increase pressure on the dollar, while stronger figures could support further dollar gains and lead to continued declines in both currency pairs. Beyond this week, continued attention to Fed and Bank of England communications will matter for whether the current dollar strength persists.