Ethereum has slipped below the short rising daily trendline that supported its advance through September, placing a dense cluster of technical levels between roughly $2,535 and $2,580 at the center of the market's attention. At 13:24 UTC on October 7, ETH traded near $2,559 on Bitstamp's TradingView chart, down approximately 5.5% over the preceding 24 hours.

The decline followed repeated failed attempts to establish price above $2,800. ETH repeatedly reached that area in late September, only to fall back into its earlier range each time. With the daily diagonal now broken, buyers must demonstrate that the wider recovery can withstand a deeper pullback.

A Layered Defense Between $2,535 and $2,580

The immediate response is forming within the $2,535 to $2,580 band where three separate references converge. The daily 0.236 Fibonacci retracement sits near $2,560, the 50-day simple moving average runs close to $2,547, and the 200-week SMA near $2,540 adds a longer-term reference just below them. Confluences like this tend to draw added scrutiny because Fibonacci retracements and moving averages are among the most widely followed tools in technical analysis, and how price behaves where several overlap is often read as a test of whether the prevailing structure is still intact.

The key levels in sequence:

• $2,535 to $2,580: daily 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, 50-day SMA and 200-week SMA.
• Near $2,500: weekly 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, the first lower weekly reference.
• Near2,430: daily 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, below the weekly $2,500 level.
• $2,760, then $2,800 to $2,812: the 100-week SMA, followed by the recent high and the main overhead barrier.

A brief move through one part of the zone will not decide the setup while the daily candle remains open. A daily close below $2,535, followed by a failed recovery, would bring the weekly Fibonacci level near $2,500 into view. Losing that level would expose the daily 0.382 retracement around $2,433 and confirm that the pullback has moved beyond the broken diagonal.

The Weekly Chart Widens the Support Range

The revised weekly Fibonacci measurement places its 0.236 retracement near $2,500. Taken together with the 200-week SMA near $2,540, these references create a broader weekly support band beneath the daily levels rather than a single exact floor.

Ethereum has therefore arrived at daily support while the weekly chart leaves room for a deeper decline toward $2,500 without breaking its entire recovery structure. Holding above the 200-week average would offer the firmer early sign that buyers remain active; a drop through it would shift attention to the Fibonacci level beneath.

Resistance remains close enough to shape any rebound. The 100-week SMA near $2,760 has capped recent advances, while $2,800 to $2,812 contains the latest high. ETH would need to recover both areas before the market could treat the decline as a completed pullback rather than another failed attempt to clear resistance.

Below $2,500, the daily 0.382 Fibonacci level near $2,433 comes into view. The 50-week SMA near $2,390 would become more relevant only if selling extends beyond that daily support.

BitMine May Leave the Market Needing Another Buyer

The support test is taking place while one of Ether's most visible corporate accumulators appears close to completing its strategy. CoinDesk reported that BitMine chairman Tom Lee said the company plans to stop token purchases after nearing its goal of holding 5% of ETH's supply. Treasury programs of this kind expanded across Ether markets during 2025, and their regular, filing-based disclosures gave traders a demand stream they could track week by week.

BitMine's October 5 release, filed with the SEC, shows why the comment has drawn attention. The company reported holding 6,016,414 ETH, equal to 4.9% of the stated 122.1 million ETH supply, and said it had bought Ether every week since beginning its treasury strategy in June 2025. The release confirms the scale of those holdings, though it does not disclose the timing, venue or market effect of individual purchases.

Ending purchases would leave BitMine with its existing ETH position while reducing a recurring source of disclosed demand. ETF flows, spot buyers, stakers and other treasury companies would then have a larger role in determining whether ETH can hold its support range.

Futures positioning could make the response sharper. ETH entered the sell-off with elevated derivatives activity, and the next change in open interest may show whether traders are closing leverage or opening fresh positions. Ethereum's recent eight-month open-interest high and the rise in Bitfinex shorts show why price alone does not reveal the full balance of risk around a key level.

The Support Reaction Now Carries the Story

Ethereum has moved from rejection at $2,800 into daily support, with a wider weekly band extending toward $2,500. Holding above the 200-week SMA near $2,540 would keep the recovery on firmer ground, although buyers would still need to reclaim $2,760 and then $2,800 to change the near-term picture.

A sustained loss of $2,500 would put $2,430 in focus and make the question of replacement demand more pressing. BitMine's reported plan does not prove why Ether fell today. It does, however, make the response at support more revealing, because the market may soon need to hold without one of its most consistent disclosed buyers.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Technical levels are approximate and do not guarantee future price movements.