That shelf has carried weight since July 15, with repeated trading around the same area forming a well-established supply zone. ETH has now reached that level, and today’s daily close will determine whether the rebound qualifies as a successful retest.

Key Takeaways

• Price reached the horizontal resistance identified in the previous Ethereum analysis.
• The more difficult test lies near $1,950.
• Ethereum wallets have crossed 200 million.
• Central-bank decisions could disrupt the setup.

The Retest Hinges on Today’s Close

For the setup to improve, Ethereum needs to finish the session above both the horizontal shelf and the Fibonacci level beneath it.

A close above the shelf would indicate that buyers are absorbing the supply built there since mid-July. It would also confirm Tuesday’s defence of $1,870 as something more durable than a brief reaction.

If ETH closes back below the shelf while holding above $1,870, the setup would remain unresolved. A drop beneath the Fibonacci level would weaken it decisively and reopen a path toward $1,800.

Daily RSI is near 57, above its signal line. Momentum has improved without becoming stretched, leaving room for further gains if confirmation follows.

The Harder Resistance Is at $1,950

If ETH clears the current shelf, the next test comes into view.

The $1,950 area combines a second horizontal level with the 100-day simple moving average. The horizontal level reflects earlier supply, while the moving average is a widely watched medium-term trend gauge.

That overlap gives the zone more significance than either component would have alone. Buyers would need to absorb existing sell orders while pushing ETH back above an average that has remained overhead throughout the recovery.

An intraday move above $1,950 would be encouraging. A close above it, maintained into the following session, would provide stronger evidence that the move is more than a relief bounce.

The June Channel and $2,000 Add Another Barrier

Above $1,950, attention shifts to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $1,985, where the lower boundary of Ethereum’s June ascending channel also sits.

That channel supported ETH during its earlier recovery until price broke below it on July 23. Former support approached from below often attracts sellers, especially when it aligns with a retracement level.

The psychological level at $2,000 sits just above, concentrating resistance between $1,985 and $2,000.

Ethereum began its broader decline toward $1,500 from this same region on June 2. Traders who bought before that drop may see another move into the area as an opportunity to reduce exposure, adding supply to an already visible zone. Clearing the entire band in one move would be difficult, and a pause or rejection near $2,000 would fit the pattern even after a successful break of $1,950.

Wallet Growth Supports the Longer-Term Picture

The defence of $1,870 comes against the backdrop of a broader expansion in Ethereum’s holder base. Santiment data shows the network crossed 200 million non-empty wallets for the first time during the past two weeks.

The figure refers to addresses rather than people, since one individual, exchange, or institution may control several. Even so, it shows that more wallets are holding an ETH balance despite the recent decline.

A growing base of balance-holding addresses can help the market absorb supply during pullbacks. The data does not prove those wallets bought at $1,870, but it offers a structural explanation for why selling around the Fibonacci level met demand instead of accelerating.

Holder growth does not signal a breakout on its own. Its importance increases if ETH turns the current shelf into support and then challenges $1,950.

Macro Risk Over the Next Three Days

Ethereum’s technical test arrives during a tightly packed sequence of central-bank events, which can quickly change how traders treat nearby resistance levels.

The Federal Reserve decision comes on 29 July. No rate change is the expected outcome and is largely priced in, leaving the market sensitive to the tone of the accompanying guidance. A hawkish message could lift the dollar and bond yields, weaken demand for risk assets, and turn any break above $1,950 into a failed move.

Attention then turns to the Bank of Japan on Thursday and Friday. As covered in our analysis of how Japan’s rate path affects crypto, any sign of faster tightening could strengthen the yen and pressure the carry trades that fund positions across equities and digital assets.

Friday’s US economic releases will close the week. A favourable macro response would give buyers a better chance of clearing $1,950 and testing the $1,985 to $2,000 area, while a hawkish surprise could undo an otherwise sound technical breakout.

The Levels That Matter Now

ETH remains below both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, so the advance is still a recovery within a weak broader structure.

Upside scenario: A close above the current shelf, held above $1,870, opens the $1,950 test. Clearing the 100-day average from there exposes the $1,985 to $2,000 band, where the June channel and the psychological level converge.

Rejection scenario: Failure at the current shelf puts $1,870 back under pressure. Losing that level brings $1,800 into play.

The chart would only change character if buyers reclaim $1,950 and prove they can hold the cluster above it. Everything below that remains range trading within a downtrend, and three central-bank events over the next three days could decide the outcome.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Technical levels may fail, particularly around major central-bank and economic announcements.

Methodology: The analysis uses the ETH/USD daily chart, Fibonacci retracement levels, horizontal trading zones, the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages, RSI, and Santiment holder-count data through July 28.